JPMorgan CFO expects higher net interest revenue across the board except in home mortgages

JPMorgan CFO expects higher net interest revenue across the board except in home mortgages

JPMorgan Updates Net Interest Income Forecast, Citing Strength Across Business Lines Except Mortgages

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) has reaffirmed its 2026 net interest income (NII) guidance, projecting total NII of $103 billion, a 2% increase from current market expectations, while excluding markets-related revenue. This revised forecast reflects robust performance across most business segments, though the home mortgage division faces margin pressures despite higher production volumes.

The bank's fourth-quarter earnings, reported in January 2026, showed an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.23 after accounting for reserve adjustments tied to its Apple Card program. JPMorgan's global markets, private banking, and wholesale banking units contributed to its strong financial results, prompting BofA Securities to raise its price target for JPM to $362 from $350, citing the bank's diversified revenue streams.

However, the Home Lending unit experienced mixed outcomes. While fourth-quarter mortgage originations rose to $16 billion—a 16% increase from the prior quarter and 32% year-over-year—gain-on-sale (GOS) margins declined by 6 basis points to 118 basis points, according to KBW analyst Bose George. The shift toward higher-margin retail lending (65% of production) failed to offset broader margin compression, raising concerns for independent mortgage bankers.

JPMorgan's total mortgage fees and related income in 2025 fell 4% year-over-year to $1.32 billion, driven by lower servicing revenue despite higher origination volumes. Analysts noted that while the bank's mortgage servicing rights valuations remained stable, the segment's performance lags behind its broader NII growth trajectory.

Overall, JPMorgan's strategic focus on fee-based income, digital innovation, and balance sheet optimization positions it to exceed 2026 NII expectations. Yet, mortgage-related challenges underscore sector-specific vulnerabilities amid evolving market conditions.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.