Jones Trading Reiterates "Hold" Rating on MFA Financial, Inc.

Jones Trading reiterates a "Hold" rating for MFA Financial, with no updates on the price target. Analyst Jason Weaver maintains the current outlook for the company. The average target price for MFA Financial is $11.00, with a high estimate of $14.00 and a low estimate of $10.00, indicating an upside of 18.15% from the current price. The average brokerage recommendation is 2.6, also indicating a "Hold" status. GF Value estimates a one-year price of $13.79, suggesting a potential upside of 48.12% from the current price.

MFA Financial (NYSE: MFA), a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on residential mortgage assets, reported its second-quarter (Q2) 2025 earnings, revealing a significant shortfall in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to analyst forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $0.24, falling short of the $0.29 forecast, marking a 17.24% negative surprise. Revenue came in at $61.28 million, marginally below the expected $61.53 million [1].

Following the earnings announcement, MFA Financial’s stock price decreased by 1.74% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over the earnings miss. Despite the earnings miss, MFA Financial maintains an impressive 15.7% dividend yield and has consistently paid dividends for 28 consecutive years [3].

Analysts at BTIG maintain a Hold rating for MFA Financial with a $10.25 average price target. Analyst Eric Hagen has a 3-star rating with a 2.8% average return and a 50.63% success rate [2]. Jones Trading reiterates a "Hold" rating for MFA Financial, with no updates on the price target. Analyst Jason Weaver maintains the current outlook for the company. The average target price for MFA Financial is $11.00, with a high estimate of $14.00 and a low estimate of $10.00, indicating an upside of 18.15% from the current price. The average brokerage recommendation is 2.6, also indicating a "Hold" status. GF Value estimates a one-year price of $13.79, suggesting a potential upside of 48.12% from the current price [3].

MFA Financial’s P/E ratio of 9.34 indicates that it is trading at a less expensive P/E ratio than the market average P/E ratio of about 25.62 [1]. The company's P/B Ratio of 0.54 suggests that it could be undervalued with respect to its assets and liabilities [1]. Despite the earnings miss, MFA Financial maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 38.19, indicating robust ability to meet short-term obligations [3].

MFA Financial anticipates that its distributable earnings will align more closely with its dividend level by 2026. The company plans to continue resolving underperforming assets and aims for growth in business purpose loan originations. Volatile treasury yields and mortgage credit spreads could impact future performance, and the housing market faces challenges due to high interest rates and affordability issues [3].

The quarterly dividend was held steady at $0.36 per share. Investors will likely continue to monitor the relationship between distributable earnings and the dividend, along with trends in loan performance, portfolio composition, and further credit resolutions. The lack of clear forward guidance and ongoing earnings volatility may keep attention focused on MFA’s ability to stabilize profitability and maintain its payout as it works through unsettled credit exposures.

References:
[1] https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/MFA/
[2] https://seekingalpha.com/news/4478563-mfa-financial-q2-2025-earnings-preview
[3] https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-mfa-financial-q2-2025-misses-eps-forecast-93CH-4174057