Joby Aviation Surges 4.2% on Bullish Momentum Amid Sector Divergence

Summary
• JOBY trades at $14.255, up 4.2% from $13.68
• Intraday range spans $15.23 high to $14.2343 low
• Turnover hits 20.42 million shares, 4.29% of float

Joby Aviation’s shares are surging amid a technical breakout, defying a weak sector backdrop. With Boeing’s -1.31% drag on the aircraft manufacturing sector, JOBY’s 4.2% rally has ignited speculation about short-term momentum. The stock’s 52-week range of $4.78–$20.95 suggests a volatile but structurally bullish profile, with options activity intensifying as expiration looms on September 19.

Technical Breakout Drives JOBY’s 4.2% Rally
JOBY’s intraday surge stems from a confluence of technical triggers. The stock pierced its 30-day moving average of $15.57, reversing from a prior bearish cross. A 41.07 RSI reading—above oversold territory—signals renewed buying pressure, while the -0.63 MACD line suggests a narrowing bearish divergence. The 14.38 Bollinger Middle Band now acts as a critical support level, with volume surging to 4.29% of the float. This breakout aligns with the K-line pattern’s short-term bullish bias, indicating a potential continuation above $15.23.

Aircraft Manufacturing Sector Diverges as Joby Defies Boeing's Slide
The aircraft manufacturing sector is split, with JOBY’s 4.2% gain contrasting Boeing’s -1.31% decline. While Boeing’s technicals show bearish momentum (RSI at 38.2, MACD -1.2), JOBY’s short-term indicators suggest a divergent path. This divergence highlights sector-specific catalysts: JOBY’s speculative options-driven rally versus Boeing’s earnings-driven pressure. Investors should monitor whether JOBY’s breakout sustains above $15.23 to validate sector independence.

High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Plays for JOBY’s Breakout
• 200-day MA: $9.44 (below) • RSI: 41.07 (neutral) • Bollinger Band: $14.38 (middle) • MACD: -0.63 (bearish narrowing)

JOBY’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup, with key resistance at $15.23 and support at $14.38. The 4.29% turnover rate and 78.71% implied volatility on the 14.5 strike indicate high liquidity. Two options stand out for leveraged exposure:

• JOBY20250919C15 (Call, $15 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 83.11% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 37.29% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.347 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.06299 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2118 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $104,883 (liquid)
This contract offers a 37.33% price change ratio, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $15.00). Payoff: max(0, $15.00 - $15) = $0.00 (break-even).

• JOBY20250926C15.5 (Call, $15.5 strike, 9/26 expiry):
- IV: 83.52% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 29.52% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.3318 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0403 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1513 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $3,788 (liquid)
This contract’s 50% price change ratio suits a 5% upside (target $15.00). Payoff: max(0, $15.00 - $15.50) = $0.00 (break-even).

Aggressive bulls may consider JOBY20250919C15 into a bounce above $14.38, while JOBY20250926C15.5 offers a longer runway for a 5% move.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
Below is the event-study back-test you requested. Key assumptions that were auto-completed for you:1. “Intraday surge ≥ 4 %” was defined as (Close – Open) / Open ≥ 4 % on the same trading day. • This fits the usual interpretation of an intraday move and aligns with readily available OHLC data. 2. Data window: 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-12 (latest available EoD data). 3. Price series: Close prices were used for the post-event performance measurement.Feel free to let me know if you would like any of these assumptions adjusted.Please open the interactive panel on the right to view the full statistical report and visualizations of JOBY’s performance after each ≥4 % intraday surge.

Act Now: JOBY’s Breakout Hinges on $14.38 Support and Sector Divergence
JOBY’s 4.2% rally is a technical breakout play, but sustainability depends on holding $14.38 and outperforming Boeing’s -1.31% drag. The 41.07 RSI and narrowing MACD suggest momentum is intact, but the -0.12 histogram warns of potential exhaustion. Investors should watch the 14.5 strike’s 79.96% IV and 76.67% price change ratio as liquidity beacons. If $14.38 breaks, the 6.53–6.84 200D support becomes critical. Aggressive bulls may target JOBY20250919C15 for a 5% upside, while sector divergence watchers should monitor Boeing’s earnings catalysts.