Joby Aviation Soars on EV Integration and Urban Air Mobility Breakthroughs

The stock of Joby Aviation (JOBY) has surged 7.07% in June 2025, fueled by a confluence of strategic advancements that position the company at the forefront of the emerging urban air mobility (UAM) sector. As the world grapples with congestion, decarbonization, and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), Joby's progress in scaling its all-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft—paired with high-profile partnerships—has reignited investor optimism. Let's dissect the catalysts behind this momentum and assess whether the stock's climb is sustainable.

The EV-EVTOL Synergy: Toyota's Investment and Technical Progress

At the heart of Joby's recent gains is its $500 million partnership with Toyota, with the first $250 million tranche already secured. This alliance isn't merely financial—it's a technical marriage. Toyota's expertise in EV manufacturing and battery systems is critical to Joby's goal of producing aircraft that can cruise at 200 mph while achieving a 250-mile range on a single charge.

The collaboration has already yielded tangible results. Joby recently completed its first piloted full transition flights—vertical takeoff, sustained forward flight, and vertical landing—without incident. Three pilots executed these maneuvers seamlessly, a milestone that brings Joby closer to submitting its Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) application to the FAA. This technical progress is underpinned by a robust financial foundation: Joby's cash reserves now exceed $800 million, and its Q1 2025 loss narrowed to $0.11 per share, outperforming analyst expectations.

Regulatory Momentum and Manufacturing Scale-Up

Joby's stock is also benefiting from tangible regulatory progress. The company has completed 62% of its internal Stage 4 FAA certification testing, with the FAA itself 43% through its parallel review. If this pace holds, Joby could secure certification by late 2025—a critical step toward its 2026 commercial launch target.

Meanwhile, manufacturing is ramping up. Joby's new facility in Ohio, supported by Toyota's manufacturing expertise, is on track to produce aircraft at scale. The company's gross margin hit 100% in Q1, a reflection of its focus on high-margin direct sales to defense and enterprise clients, while partnerships with Delta, Uber, and Virgin Atlantic will underpin its consumer-facing services.

This chart underscores the stock's volatility but also its recent upward trajectory. The next catalyst could be the FAA's TIA testing, expected to begin later this year, which would validate Joby's design against all safety standards.

The Market Demand Case: Urban Air Mobility's Tipping Point

The UAM sector is still nascent, but demand is materializing. Joby's partnerships with Uber, Delta, and ANA (Japan's largest airline) signal strong institutional buy-in. Analysts estimate the global UAM market could hit $30 billion by 2035, driven by urban congestion and the decarbonization push. Joby's focus on mid-range regional routes—connecting suburbs to cities—aligns with this vision.

Crucially, Joby's aircraft is designed to operate quietly and efficiently, addressing two key barriers to UAM adoption: noise pollution and infrastructure costs. Its electric propulsion system avoids the need for runways, making it viable for urban rooftops and remote areas alike.

Risks and Investment Considerations

Despite the positives, risks remain. Joby is still pre-revenue, and its $800 million cash pile will be stretched as it scales production and awaits FAA approval. Short interest remains elevated, and the sector's regulatory and technical hurdles are unproven at scale.

However, the company's financial flexibility—its current ratio of 17.7 indicates ample liquidity—and strategic partnerships provide a buffer. Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently raised their price target to $8.67, implying a 30% upside from current levels.

The Bottom Line: A Strategic Entry Point

Joby's stock is best viewed as a long-term bet on the UAM sector's potential. Investors seeking exposure to EV integration and decarbonization should consider entering ahead of key milestones: the FAA's TIA testing results (expected by early 2026) and Toyota's second $250 million tranche, which could drop as soon as late 2025.

For now, Joby's stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple of ~1.5x, a discount to peers like Archer Aviation (ACHR). While risks remain, the combination of regulatory progress, manufacturing scale-up, and Toyota's backing makes Joby a compelling leader in a market poised for growth.

Final recommendation: Accumulate gradually as TIA testing approaches, with a price target of $8.67 on the horizon. The skies may still be uncertain, but Joby's trajectory is pointing upward.