Joby Aviation Plummets 4.6% Amid Earnings Shock and Certification Hurdles—What’s Next for the eVTOL Giant?

Summary
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) slumps 4.6% intraday to $16.45, its lowest since July 2025
• Q2 earnings miss by 110% with $325M net loss and $20K revenue stoke investor fears
• $1B Saudi deal and Blade acquisition offer long-term optimism amid regulatory delays

Joby Aviation’s stock is in freefall as weak earnings and certification delays collide with strategic bets on global expansion. The eVTOL pioneer’s shares have plunged to a 52-week low, raising questions about its path to profitability. With $991M in cash and a $250M Toyota infusion, the company’s balance sheet remains robust, but near-term monetization remains elusive. Today’s selloff reflects a mix of short-term skepticism and long-term intrigue.

Earnings Shock and Certification Delays Fuel Short-Term Panic
Joby’s Q2 earnings report shattered expectations, delivering a $0.41 EPS loss versus -$0.19 forecast and just $20,000 in revenue against $1.57M estimates. The $325M net loss, though trimmed from Q1’s $360M, underscored the company’s struggle to scale operations. Meanwhile, the FAA’s Type Certification timeline remains uncertain, with TIA testing delayed until 2026. While the $1B Saudi deal and Blade acquisition signal strategic momentum, investors are pricing in near-term risks. Analysts at H.C. Wainwright and Canaccord downgraded the stock, citing valuation concerns and regulatory hurdles.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Mixed as Joby Stumbles on Earnings
The broader Aerospace & Defense sector remains resilient, with Boeing (BA) up 0.89% on improved commercial delivery forecasts. However, Joby’s 4.6% decline starkly contrasts with peers like Embraer and Lockheed Martin, which reported record backlogs and production ramps. While the sector benefits from global defense spending and commercial aviation recovery, Joby’s reliance on regulatory milestones and unproven eVTOL monetization models isolates it from near-term gains.

Bearish Options Play Amid Volatility Surge—Key Contracts to Watch
• 200-day MA: $8.32 (well below current price), RSI: 47.6 (neutral), MACD: 1.85 (bearish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $20.95, Middle $16.89, Lower $12.84 (current price near lower band)
• Implied Volatility: 70–80% (elevated, reflecting market anxiety)

Joby’s technicals and options chain suggest a high-probability bearish setup. The stock is trading near its 52-week low and key support levels, with RSI and MACD signaling oversold conditions. Two top options for short-term bearish exposure are:

• JOBY20250815P16: Put option with 77.31% IV, 29.82% leverage ratio, delta -0.389, theta -0.0083, gamma 0.204, turnover $34.7M. High gamma ensures sensitivity to price swings, while moderate delta balances risk. Projected 5% downside (to $15.63) yields a $0.37 payoff.
• JOBY20250822P17: Put option with 74.87% IV, 12.42% leverage ratio, delta -0.559, theta -0.0031, gamma 0.158, turnover $48.3M. Strong liquidity and high IV make this ideal for a 5% move (to $15.63), yielding $0.37 payoff. Aggressive bulls may consider JOBY20250815C15.5 for a rebound trade, but bearish plays dominate the near-term outlook.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
The backtest of JOBY's performance after an intraday plunge of -5% shows mixed results. The 3-Day win rate is 50.46%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.38%, and the 30-Day win rate is 51.55%. While the short-term win rates are relatively high, the overall returns over the backtested period are negative, with a maximum return of only 0.01% over 30 days. This suggests that while JOBY may bounce back from a significant intraday dip, the overall performance in the subsequent days is lackluster.

Joby at Crossroads—Certification or Collapse? Watch These 3 Levels
Joby’s near-term fate hinges on its ability to secure FAA certification and monetize its Saudi and Blade partnerships. With $991M in cash and a $250M Toyota tranche, liquidity risks are low, but investor patience is thin. The 52-week low of $4.70 remains a distant threat, but key levels to watch are $16.30 (intraday low), $15.50 (Blade deal strike price), and $14.50 (200-day MA). Boeing’s 0.89% gain highlights sector resilience, but Joby’s unique regulatory and monetization challenges demand caution. Aggressive bears should target $15.50 breakdown with JOBY20250815P16, while bulls need a decisive rebound above $17.36 to rekindle optimism.