Job turnover hit a nine-year low in January, at 5.8%, per CBS News

Job turnover hit a nine-year low in January, at 5.8%, per CBS News

U.S. Job Turnover Reaches Nine-Year Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

Employee turnover in the U.S. labor market hit a nine-year low of 5.8% in January 2026, according to ADP Research, reflecting a trend of heightened "job stickiness" as workers and employers maintain stability amid economic uncertainty. This marks a significant shift from the hyper-competitive environment of the post-pandemic "Great Resignation," when record quit rates and robust hiring characterized the labor market.

The decline in turnover is most pronounced among white-collar workers in finance, information technology, and professional business services—industries heavily influenced by artificial intelligence (AI) adoption. While AI has created demand for specialized roles (e.g., AI developers), it has also automated routine tasks, reducing the need for entry-level positions. For example, Radouane Khiri, a full-stack web developer at US Mobile, noted that AI tools now handle tasks previously requiring junior developers, leading companies to hire fewer entry-level candidates.

The labor market's cautious tone contrasts sharply with 2023 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed annual hires declining for the first time since 2009, while layoffs and discharges rose by 12.3% compared to 2022. This trend aligns with a broader "low-hire, low-fire" equilibrium, driven by reduced incentives to switch jobs. ADP's Nela Richardson highlighted that the pay premium for job-changers has shrunk to less than 3% in 25 consecutive months, diminishing the financial appeal of quitting.

Economic uncertainty, including the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes since 2022, has further dampened hiring momentum. Meanwhile, fears of AI-driven displacement have spurred some young workers to pursue blue-collar careers perceived as less vulnerable to automation.

Experts caution that while low turnover may signal stability, it could also indicate a stagnant labor market. Goldman Sachs' Joseph Briggs, however, notes historical patterns suggest AI will ultimately drive job creation through innovation, even as it disrupts existing roles. For now, the labor market remains in a transitional phase, balancing caution with adaptation to technological and macroeconomic shifts.

CBS News, ADP Research: CBS News, ADP Research
ADP Research: ADP Research
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs