JASMYUSDT Market Overview: Volatility Expands Amid Downtrend, Support Levels Form Below $0.01300

• JASMYUSDT fell from $0.01342 to $0.01269 over 24 hours amid bearish momentum and expanding volatility.
• A key support level appears near $0.01280–$0.01285, with RSI suggesting oversold conditions.
• Volume spiked in the afternoon before price resumed a downtrend, signaling potential divergence.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price moved near the lower band, reflecting increased bearish pressure.
• A double-bottom pattern may form near $0.01280–$0.01285, with Fibonacci support at 61.8% near $0.01284.

JasmyCoin/Tether (JASMYUSDT) opened at $0.01342 (12:00 ET - 1), reached a high of $0.01365, and closed at $0.01269 by 12:00 ET. The pair traded between $0.01365 and $0.01263, with total volume of 63,803,848.7 and a notional turnover of approximately $835,969. The 24-hour candle closed with a bearish bias, forming a long upper and lower shadow, signaling indecision among traders.

Structure and formations over the past 24 hours highlight multiple key support levels forming around $0.01280–$0.01285. Notable bearish reversal patterns, such as bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns, appeared around $0.01335–$0.01332, while the price struggled to regain prior levels. A potential double-bottom structure is emerging as price consolidates near $0.01285 after dipping below $0.01275. The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish bias, with price failing to close above key resistance levels, reinforcing the downward trajectory.

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MACD and RSI confirm the bearish momentum, with RSI dipping below 30, suggesting oversold conditions. However, a divergence appears between price and RSI as the price continues to drop while RSI remains in oversold territory, signaling potential exhaustion. The 15-minute MACD crossed below the signal line, indicating short-term bearish continuation. On the daily chart, RSI remains in a bearish range, with no clear signs of reversal. The pair appears to be consolidating near a key support cluster, but a breakdown below $0.01275 could accelerate the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands show significant expansion as the price moves near the lower band, reflecting heightened volatility. The 20-period band widens to accommodate the price swing from $0.01365 to $0.01269, with the lower band forming a potential short-term floor near $0.01280. Price action remains tightly compressed against the band, indicating that a break below this level may lead to further downward movement. Volatility has been uneven, with the largest expansion occurring between 19:00–20:00 ET and 08:00–09:00 ET, corresponding to sharp selloffs.

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Volume spiked significantly during two key selloffs: one between 19:00–20:00 ET and another between 08:00–09:00 ET. These spikes coincide with price declines of 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively. However, volume has since declined, suggesting a potential short-term pause in the sell-off. Notional turnover was highest during the early morning ET hours, indicating increased bearish conviction. A divergence between declining price and stable or decreasing volume may hint at waning bearish momentum, but further confirmation is needed.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing (from $0.01365 to $0.01269) show 61.8% at $0.01284 and 38.2% at $0.01320. Price has tested $0.01285 and appears to be consolidating near this level. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement from a prior swing high could offer a potential target if the current bearish trend reverses, but this is speculative at this stage.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy leverages key support levels identified at $0.01280–$0.01285, combined with bearish divergence on the RSI and MACD. A potential long entry could be triggered if price bounces off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.01284, with a stop loss below $0.01275. Conversely, a short position could be initiated on a break below $0.01280, with a target near $0.01270 and a stop above $0.01290. The strategy would benefit from confirming volume and divergence signals before entering. Given the current consolidation near key support, the setup could offer a high-probability trade if the price action follows expected pattern continuation.

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