Acciones japonesas y reaparición del carry trade: oportunidades ante la debilidad del yen

The yen's structural weakness in 2025 has created a unique confluence of macroeconomic dynamics, offering both challenges and opportunities for investors. As the Bank of Japan (BOJ) navigates a cautious tightening cycle, the yen remains under pressure from persistent capital outflows and wide U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials. This environment has amplified the appeal of Japanese equities and rekindled interest in carry trade strategies, positioning Japan as a focal point for investors seeking asymmetric risk-reward profiles.

Structural Weakness in the Yen: A Persistent Tailwind for Exporters

The yen's depreciation, which has pushed the USD/JPY pair to multi-year highs, is driven by a combination of negative real yields and divergent monetary policies. Despite the BOJ's December 2025 rate hike to 0.75%-its highest level since 1995-the central bank has lagged behind the Federal Reserve in normalizing policy. Real interest rates in Japan remain deeply negative at approximately –2.15%, while U.S. real yields have climbed to positive territory. This divergence has fueled carry trades, where investors borrow in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, further exacerbating the yen's weakness.

Analysts from JPMorgan and BNP Paribas predict the yen could weaken to 160 per dollar by the end of 2026. Such a trajectory would benefit Japanese exporters, as a weaker yen enhances the competitiveness of their goods in global markets. For instance, Japan's exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in September 2025, snapping a four-month slump, with the weak yen providing a critical edge. Sectors like electric appliances and nonferrous metals have particularly benefited, with companies leveraging currency tailwinds to boost profit margins.

BOJ's Cautious Tightening: A Double-Edged Sword

The BOJ's gradual approach to tightening has been a double-edged sword. While the December 2025 rate hike signaled a shift toward normalization, the central bank's messaging has remained ambiguous, leaving markets skeptical about the pace of future increases. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that aggressive tightening is not on the agenda, citing the need to monitor wage and price-setting behavior. This uncertainty has limited the yen's rebound, as investors continue to price in a slow normalization path.

The BOJ's caution also reflects broader fiscal constraints. Japan's public debt-to-GDP ratio remains at record highs, and the central bank's reliance on domestic capital to fund government debt has constrained the effectiveness of rate hikes. As a result, the yen's weakness persists, creating a self-reinforcing cycle where depreciation boosts export competitiveness but also raises import costs, fueling inflation. This dynamic has pushed annual inflation to 3.00% in December 2025, bringing the BOJ closer to its 2% target.

Japanese Equities: A Rally Built on Structural Reforms

The Japanese equity market has surged in 2025, with the Nikkei recording its best monthly return in 35 years in October. This rally has been driven by corporate governance reforms, improved business sentiment, and political developments, including the election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister. However, the equity market's performance is also closely tied to the yen's weakness. A weaker yen has historically boosted the valuations of exporters, as foreign currency revenues convert into higher yen-denominated profits.

Despite these gains, analysts caution that Japanese equities are already priced for perfection. The MSCI Japan Index has risen over 11% year-to-date, with ETFs like the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) outperforming broader indices. However, high public debt and limited fiscal flexibility pose risks to sustained growth. The BOJ's unwinding of its ETF and REIT holdings in September 2025-a symbolic shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy-has also introduced volatility, with government bond yields rising sharply.

Carry Trade Re-emergence: Risks and Rewards

The yen's structural weakness has rekindled interest in carry trade strategies, where investors borrow in yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real or Turkish lira. This dynamic has been amplified by the BOJ's negative real yields and the Fed's delayed rate-cut timeline. However, the risks of such strategies are significant. A sudden reversal in global risk appetite or a sharp yen rebound could erase gains, particularly as Japan's fiscal sustainability remains a concern.

For investors willing to tolerate these risks, the current environment offers asymmetric opportunities. Japanese exporters, particularly in technology and manufacturing, are well-positioned to benefit from the weak yen. Additionally, the BOJ's gradual normalization may eventually lead to a more balanced yield environment, reducing the pressure on the yen and stabilizing carry trade flows.

Conclusion: Navigating the Opportunities

The yen's structural weakness and the BOJ's cautious tightening present a complex but navigable landscape for investors. Japanese equities offer exposure to a market undergoing structural reforms, while the re-emergence of carry trade strategies provides additional avenues for capitalizing on currency dynamics. However, success in this environment requires careful risk management, particularly given Japan's fiscal vulnerabilities and the potential for sudden shifts in global capital flows.

As the BOJ continues its delicate balancing act between inflation control and fiscal sustainability, investors should focus on sectors and companies that directly benefit from the weak yen. Export-oriented industries, corporate governance reforms, and strategic ETF allocations are key areas to monitor. In a world where monetary policy divergence remains a dominant theme, Japan's market offers a compelling case study in capitalizing on structural imbalances.