Japan Trading Firms' Earnings: Commodity Price Drop Bites

Japan's major trading firms, often referred to as Sogo Shosha, have long been a driving force in the global commodities market. However, recent earnings reports from these firms paint a picture of slowing profits, largely due to a drop in commodity prices. This article delves into the impact of commodity price fluctuations on these firms and the strategies they employ to mitigate risks.


The five major Japanese trading firms backed by Warren Buffett have seen their earnings dented by lower commodity prices this year. Among them, Mitsui & Co. was the only one to boost its net income guidance for the full year, attributing this to its LNG business. The other firms, including Mitsubishi Corp., Marubeni Corp., Sumitomo Corp., and Itochu Corp., missed analyst estimates for the second quarter, largely due to declining prices of coking coal and iron ore (Financial Post, 2024).


China's economic slowdown and reduced demand for commodities have exacerbated the situation. The stagnating recovery in consumption in China, coupled with declining prices, has led to a decrease in profits for these firms. Despite these challenges, the firms remain optimistic about their prospects for the remainder of the fiscal year, citing potential improvements in their energy, copper, textile, and overseas electricity businesses.

To mitigate risks from commodity market volatility, Japan's trading firms have diversified their business portfolios. Itochu Corp., for instance, acquired an additional stake in Brazilian iron ore producer CSN Mineração for around 117 billion yen ($760 million) to secure high-quality ore for cleaner steel-making. Mitsubishi Corp. boosted its net income forecast for the energy segment, citing higher market prices for LNG, while Sumitomo expects its overseas electricity business to support profits (Financial Post, 2024).

Warren Buffett's investment in these firms has played a significant role in their strategic decisions and risk management. Berkshire Hathaway's stake in these firms, averaging over 8.5% as of June 2024, signals Buffett's confidence in their long-term prospects. This investment has likely influenced the firms' focus on diversifying their business portfolios to protect against swings in commodity markets.

In conclusion, Japan's trading firms face challenges from commodity price fluctuations, particularly in coking coal and iron ore. While these firms have diversified their portfolios to mitigate risks, the recent earnings reports indicate that more needs to be done. As these firms navigate the volatile commodity market, they must continue to adapt and innovate to ensure long-term sustainability and profitability. The West should take notice of these trends, as they have implications for global trade and investment dynamics.