Japan's Rice Shortage Sparks National Crisis Amid High Prices and Political Fallout

A rice shortage in Japan has caused prices to surge, exacerbating the country's cost of living challenges and fueling resentment among the population. The shortage can be traced back to 2023, when a sweltering summer hurt the annual rice harvest and increased demand from restaurants following COVID restrictions. Long-term government policies have made it difficult to remedy the issue, as they provide subsidies to farmers who stick to a rice production target that serves as a de facto cap to control supply. The government has also protected the industry through strict importation laws.

A severe rice shortage in Japan has led to a surge in prices, exacerbating the country's cost of living challenges and fueling public resentment. The shortage, which can be traced back to 2023, has been compounded by long-term government policies that have made it difficult to address the issue effectively.

The current rice shortage stems from a combination of factors. A sweltering summer in 2023 significantly reduced Japan's annual rice harvest, resulting in the lowest yield in over a decade. Additionally, the easing of COVID-19 restrictions led to increased demand from restaurants, further straining the supply. In August 2024, a government warning of a potential earthquake prompted widespread stockpiling, exacerbating the shortage.

Long-standing government policies have contributed to the tight supply-demand gap. In the 1970s, a chronic oversupply of rice led the government to implement policies that disincentivized farmers from producing too much. Although these policies were officially phased out in 2018, the government continues to provide subsidies to farmers who adhere to a set rice production target. This target serves as a de facto cap on supply, limiting the industry's flexibility to absorb sudden changes in demand. Furthermore, Japan's strict importation laws have further restricted the flow of rice into the country, with a total of 7.34 million tons produced domestically last year compared to just 770,000 tons of tariff-free rice imported annually [1].

The surge in rice prices has had a significant impact on Japanese households. A year ago, a 5kg bag of rice cost around ¥2,130. By May 2025, the price had doubled to approximately ¥4,280. This increase has driven up the cost of popular dishes that rely on rice, such as onigiri and sushi, and has led some supermarkets to limit rice sales to one bag per customer. The government has been releasing rice reserves to mitigate the crisis, but much of the stockpiled rice has been held up in the supply chain, failing to reach supermarket shelves [1].

In response to the crisis, the government has been exploring emergency rice imports. Japanese farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi hinted at the possibility of importing rice in an emergency to ease distribution shortages. However, the idea has faced strong opposition from local farmers and voters who prefer domestically produced rice. The government has also been selling reserve rice directly to retailers under no-bid contracts, but this has not yet been sufficient to bring down prices significantly [2].

The rice shortage is likely to have a significant impact on the upcoming elections in July. The rising cost of living, including rice prices, is a key concern for voters, and the government's handling of the crisis could influence their voting decisions. The price of rice, along with other goods and services, is expected to weigh heavily on Japanese voters' minds as they consider their options at the ballot box [1].

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-11/japan-rice-shortage-why-record-high-prices-are-causing-a-national-crisis
[2] https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06/2f1711f70f5d-farm-minister-suggests-emergency-imports-could-cut-japan-rice-prices.html