IREN Surges 8.97% on Nvidia Partnership and AI Cloud Expansion – What’s Next?

Summary
• IREN’s stock rockets 8.97% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $29.85
• Nvidia partnership and AI cloud revenue doubling drive momentum
• JonesResearch downgrades to Hold, citing valuation risks and supply-side challenges
• Turnover surges to 45.47 million shares, signaling intense short-term interest

IREN’s explosive move reflects a collision of bullish catalysts and analyst skepticism. The stock’s 8.97% surge—its most volatile session in months—has been fueled by a $102 million financing deal, a $187.3 million Q4 revenue report, and a strategic pivot to AI infrastructure. Yet, the JonesResearch downgrade and sector volatility (AMZN down 1.54%) underscore the precarious balance between growth optimism and execution risks.

Nvidia Partnership and AI Cloud Momentum Ignite Short-Term Optimism
IREN’s 8.97% surge stems from a dual catalyst: its designation as a Nvidia preferred partner and a 100% year-over-year increase in AI cloud revenue to $7.0 million. The partnership accelerates IREN’s transition from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure, aligning with Nvidia’s dominance in AI hardware. However, JonesResearch’s downgrade highlights concerns over IREN’s reliance on GPU fleet expansion, which requires $1.1 billion in 2026 revenue forecasts to justify its 9.4x–11.7x EV/EBITDA valuation. The $102 million NYDIG legal settlement also removed a near-term overhang, but analysts warn that dilution risks and supply-side competition could erode margins.

Data Processing Sector Volatile as IREN Outpaces AMZN’s Decline
While IREN’s AI cloud pivot has driven its 8.97% rally, the broader Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector remains mixed. AMZN, the sector’s bellwether, fell 1.54% on concerns over AI cloud pricing pressures. IREN’s 15.2% post-earnings jump contrasts with peers like CoreWeave (CRWV), which dropped 10.55% on similar AI infrastructure risks. This divergence underscores IREN’s unique positioning: its renewable energy-powered model and Nvidia partnership offer differentiation, but its 72.6% gross margin (below estimates) and reliance on at-the-market equity raises remain red flags.

Options and ETFs for IREN’s Volatile AI Cloud Narrative
• MACD: 1.97 (bullish), RSI: 78.73 (overbought), 200-day MA: $11.48 (far below), Bollinger Bands: $14.77–$25.11 (price at upper band)
• IREN20250919C28: Call option with 60.5% delta, 96.7% IV, $28 strike, $350k turnover. High gamma (0.079) and theta (-0.143) suggest strong short-term sensitivity to price moves and time decay. Projected 5% upside payoff: $1.43/share (max(ST - K) = $29.85 - $28 = $1.85).
• IREN20250919C30: Call option with 44.5% delta, 98.4% IV, $30 strike, $335k turnover. High leverage (19.36%) and moderate gamma (0.080) position it for gains if IREN holds above $30. Projected 5% upside payoff: $0.93/share (max(ST - K) = $29.85 - $30 = $0).

IREN’s technicals and options chain signal a high-risk, high-reward setup. The stock is in overbought territory (RSI 78.73) but supported by a 15.2% post-earnings jump and a $29.85 52-week high. The IREN20250919C28 and C30 options offer leveraged exposure to a potential $30–$32 breakout, though the 96.7%–98.4% IV suggests elevated volatility. Aggressive bulls may consider IREN20250919C28 into a retest of the $28.85 20-day MA, while hedgers could pair it with IREN20250919P30 for downside protection.

Backtest IREN Stock Performance

IREN’s AI Cloud Bet: Ride the Wave or Watch the Risks?
IREN’s 8.97% surge reflects a pivotal moment in its AI cloud transition, but sustainability hinges on execution. The stock’s 78.73 RSI and 96.7% IV suggest overbought conditions, yet the $29.85 52-week high and $1.1 billion 2026 revenue target justify short-term optimism. However, JonesResearch’s valuation concerns and AMZN’s 1.54% decline highlight sector-wide risks. Investors should monitor the $28.85 20-day MA and $25.4 intraday low for support. If IREN breaks $28.85, the IREN20250919C28 call offers leveraged upside; if it fails to hold $25.4, the IREN20250919P30 put could cap losses. For now, the AI cloud narrative is alive—but execution, not hype, will determine its longevity.