Ireland's Incumbents Defy Global Trend, Stay Put

In the wake of the 2024 Irish General Election, the political landscape has reaffirmed the value of stability and predictability, qualities that resonate with the investment preferences of astute investors. Despite the global trend of disgruntled voters ousting incumbents, Ireland's ruling parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, have successfully retained their power, extending their grip on Irish politics.

The exit poll results, released just after 10pm on Friday, revealed a tight race between the main parties. Sinn Féin, led by Mary Lou McDonald, polled at 21.1 percent, while Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were closely behind with 21 percent and 19.5 percent, respectively. The Green Party, Labour, and Social Democrats followed with 4 percent, 5 percent, and 5.8 percent, respectively. Independents and others rounded out the poll with 14.6 percent, highlighting the strong presence of smaller parties and independent candidates in the Irish political scene.



The housing crisis and immigration emerged as critical issues in this election, with housing being the most important concern for 28 percent of voters. This issue was particularly resonant among younger voters, with 42 percent of those under 34 prioritizing housing as their primary concern. The ruling parties' focus on these issues likely contributed to their reelection prospects, as voters valued their experience and stability in managing these complex challenges.

The incumbents' handling of the housing crisis and immigration issues significantly impacted their reelection prospects. The exit poll indicated that housing, followed by the cost of living and health, was the most important issue for voters. The incumbents' failure to address the housing shortage, resulting in soaring house prices and rising rents, has been a major concern for Irish voters. Similarly, their handling of immigration, including housing asylum-seekers and addressing anti-immigrant sentiment, has been a contentious issue. Despite these challenges, the incumbents appear set to hold power, suggesting that voters may have valued their stability and predictability in managing these complex issues.



The political parties' policy proposals on housing and immigration resonated with voters, particularly among younger demographics. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail's focus on experience and economic stability appealed to voters seeking proven leadership in challenging times. Sinn Fein's ambitious housing promises and compassionate immigration stance also drew support, especially from younger voters. The incumbents' retention of power indicates that Irish voters valued stability and predictability, aligning with the author's investment preferences.

In conclusion, the Irish General Election of 2024 has reaffirmed the value of stability and predictability in politics, qualities that are also prized in the investment realm. As investors, we should seek out companies that offer steady performance, robust management, and enduring business models. By favoring 'boring but lucrative' investments, we can build a balanced portfolio that combines growth and value stocks, ultimately resulting in consistent, risk-managed growth.