US-Iran War Oil Shock: Is Detroit's Gas-Truck Bet at Risk?

Detroit automakers — Ford F, General Motors GM, and Stellantis STLA — are keeping a close watch on the escalating war between the United States and Iran. Not because they sell many vehicles in the Middle East, but because of what it is doing to oil prices and how it could shape their vehicle sales. The conflict has disrupted global crude supplies, sending oil and gasoline prices higher, and that could soon influence what Americans choose to drive.

Oil Prices Are the Real Risk for Detroit

The surge in oil prices is expected to be a threat to these auto giants. With many oil tankers unable to pass through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel for the first time in four years. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day— about a fifth of the world’s seaborne crude supply— pass through this route. Prolonged disruptions are expected to lift crude prices further, eventually pushing gasoline prices higher for U.S. consumers.

Companies like Ford, General Motors and Stellantis still depend heavily on large trucks and SUVs for profits— vehicles that tend to have lower fuel economy.

A sustained jump in gas prices could dampen demand for those models and put pressure on overall vehicle sales. Historically, sharp increases in fuel prices have pushed consumers toward smaller vehicles, hybrids and electric cars. For Detroit, which generates significant revenues from gasoline-powered pickups and SUVs, the shift could be painful if it happens quickly.

Direct Exposure to Iran Is Minimal

Detroit’s direct business exposure to Iran and the broader Middle East remains fairly limited. In 2024, the Middle East accounted for about 1.8 million vehicle sales, but the Detroit Three captured only a small slice of that market. Per CBT News, Ford sold roughly 70,000 vehicles in the region, General Motors about 62,000 and Stellantis approximately 50,000.

In Iran itself, U.S. automakers have largely been absent for years due to sanctions. Ford and General Motors have not sold vehicles there in a long time. Stellantis is the only Western automaker with notable sales in the country, largely through its Peugeot brand, per Detroit Free Press. The company reportedly sold around 14,000 Peugeot vehicles in Iran last year.

Still, the companies are watching the situation closely. Ford’s closest operations to the conflict are its joint-venture manufacturing plants in Kocaeli, Turkey, which produce models such as the Ford Transit and the electric Ford E-Transit vans primarily for European markets.

General Motors’ closest manufacturing site to Iran is located in Egypt, while the company also operates a technology center in Israel and maintains dealerships across the Middle East.

For now, none of the companies has indicated major operational disruptions. But the broader economic consequences of the conflict could affect the industry.

Could Higher Gas Prices Boost EV Demand?

A prolonged oil shock could create an unexpected opportunity for electric vehicles.

EV sales in the United States are experiencing a drastic slowdown. After a relatively strong year in 2025, growth is expected to cool in 2026 as federal incentives fade. The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and weaker policy support have already led several automakers to scale back EV investments.

But can higher gasoline prices change that equation?

Well, EVs cost more upfront, but they become more attractive when fuel prices surge. In January, the average price of a new EV was about $55,715, compared with roughly $49,191 for gasoline-powered vehicles, according to Kelley Blue Book data. If drivers start paying significantly more at the pump, the long-term operating cost advantage of EVs could become harder to ignore.

Hybrid vehicles would likely see the earliest demand boost as gasoline prices spike. But if higher fuel costs stick around for an extended period, which seems quite likely, consumers may increasingly shift toward fully electric vehicles.

In such a scenario, General Motors may be best positioned among Detroit automakers. The company now offers a wider range of electric models across its brands.

By contrast, Stellantis could face greater exposure if gas prices stay high for an extended period. The company’s North American strategy currently leans heavily on performance-oriented vehicles and trucks powered by large engines. For example, the 2025 Ram 1500 with a standard Hemi engine delivers about 19 miles per gallon combined (per MotorTrend as cited in Detroit Free Press)— a figure that becomes far less appealing if gasoline costs surge.

Ford sits somewhere in the middle. The automaker recently signaled a shift toward more gasoline and hybrid vehicles and scaled back some EV plans, leaving the Ford Mustang Mach-E as its primary electric offering after discontinuing the Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup.

Last Word

For now, the U.S.-Iran conflict has limited direct impact on Detroit automakers. But if the war keeps oil prices elevated, it would start reshaping U.S. vehicle demand. Higher gasoline prices tend to push buyers toward hybrids and EVs, a shift that could benefit some automakers while creating new challenges for others.

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