Iran's national security committee: Closing the Strait of Hormuz is an option

Iran's national security committee: Closing the Strait of Hormuz is an option

The threat of Iran attempting to blockade the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz has resurfaced amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. Iran's national security committee, led by Esmail Kosari, a member of Iran's parliament and head of the parliamentary committee on defense and national security, has stated that closing the Strait is now under serious consideration [1]. This comes as the conflict escalates, with Israel targeting Iran's energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.

The Strait of Hormuz, which is approximately 20 nautical miles across at its narrowest point, is crucial for global oil and natural gas shipments. Around a fifth of all global oil shipments and an even higher percentage of seaborne shipments pass through the Strait each year. Closing the Strait would have immediate and potentially dramatic impacts on the global price of oil, causing significant worldwide economic disruptions.

Iran has amassed an arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as kamikaze drones and maritime capabilities like naval mines, which are well-suited to shutting down the Strait. The Iranian Navy and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) possess the capability to lay mines and employ swarming tactics to overwhelm enemy defenses. Iran has also developed uncrewed surface vessels and undersea vehicles capable of launching kamikaze attacks.

However, the effectiveness of Iran's threats is uncertain. Israel's strikes on Iran since Thursday have raised questions about Iran's ability to follow through on any threat to blockade the Strait. While Iran has dispersed its ballistic and cruise missiles, making them more difficult to track, the process of clearing naval mines is slow and dangerous, especially under attack from other threats.

Naval mines have historically been one of the most immediate options Iran has for trying to bring maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a halt. These mines could be seeded relatively rapidly by a wide array of vessels, including the IRGC's extensive fleet of small fast attack boats. Finding and clearing naval mines is an arduous process that presents significant risks even in otherwise benign environments.

In recent years, Iran has also fielded a number of cargo ships converted into 'motherships' for launching cruise and ballistic missiles and drones. However, the actual roles these ships might play in a stand-up confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz seem limited, especially in this constrained environment, where they would present large and easy-to-find targets for opponents to attack.

The ongoing conflict and the potential threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz have already caused oil prices to jump. The global economic impact of such a move would be significant, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and increased costs for businesses and consumers alike.

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[1] https://www.twz.com/news-features/could-iran-carry-out-its-threat-to-shut-the-strait-of-hormuz