IQ/Tether Market Overview – 2025-09-15

• Price opened at $0.003502 and closed at $0.003409, with a high of $0.003550 and a low of $0.003403.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged mid-day, followed by a sustained pullback into the close.
• Volatility increased sharply after 20:00 ET, with volume peaking around the high.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions before a sharp divergence in momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion after a contraction, indicating increased uncertainty.

IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) opened at $0.003502 on 2025-09-14 12:00 ET and closed at $0.003409 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.003550 and a low of $0.003403. Total volume traded was 202,668,000, and notional turnover amounted to $698,743.96. The pair experienced a sharp bearish correction, marked by a failed bullish breakout.

Structure & Formations

The price structure revealed a key resistance level near $0.003550, which was briefly tested but failed to hold. A Bullish Engulfing pattern formed at $0.003505–$0.003530, followed by a Bearish Engulfing pattern at $0.003534–$0.003505, signaling a reversal. A doji near $0.003510 at 02:30 ET indicated indecision. The price then retraced to a support level near $0.003403, which held on the close.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20-period moving average moved above the 50-period line briefly in the late afternoon, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias that quickly reversed. By the end of the 24-hour window, the 50-period MA had fallen below the 20-period line, reinforcing bearish momentum. Daily 50-period and 200-period MAs showed a downward trend, with the price closing below both, suggesting a bearish bias for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 20:00 ET, suggesting a temporary bullish momentum. However, the divergence between the MACD and price action after 21:00 ET signaled weakening bullish force. The RSI reached overbought levels at 74.5 at 20:30 ET but then dropped sharply to neutral levels by the close, indicating a significant bearish correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted around 19:30 ET, indicating a potential breakout. However, the breakout attempt failed, and the bands expanded rapidly after the failed high at $0.003550. The price closed just below the mid-band, suggesting short-term uncertainty. Traders should watch the band width for potential contractions in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 20:00 ET (amounting to 5.7 million contracts) during the failed high, indicating aggressive buying pressure that did not hold. Turnover also surged during this period, confirming the intensity of the failed breakout. After 22:00 ET, volume and turnover declined, aligning with the bearish correction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the intra-day high of $0.003550 and the low of $0.003403, the 61.8% retrace level was $0.003469, which was not reached, and the 38.2% level was $0.003472, also untested. The price closed near the $0.003409 support, slightly below the 23.6% retracement level of $0.003478, indicating a strong bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the sharp reversal and failed breakout at $0.003550, a backtest strategy could focus on a breakout failure sell trigger. The strategy would enter a short position on a close below the $0.003505 pivot support, with a stop above the high of the failed bullish candle at $0.003534. A take-profit target could be set at the next Fibonacci level of $0.003403 (close price). This setup aligns with the bearish reversal patterns and declining momentum observed in the 24-hour data.