IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-24

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• Price fluctuated between 0.003214 and 0.003341, showing a strong rebound late in the session.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 13:30–14:45 ET window, with a large-volume bullish breakout above 0.003294.
• RSI showed overbought conditions near 75 during the rebound, suggesting potential for a pullback.
• Bollinger Band contraction observed in the early morning was followed by a sharp expansion, indicating heightened market activity.
• Volume surged dramatically in the afternoon with the breakout, aligning with price action for strong confirmation.

Opening Narrative

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-23, IQUSDT opened at 0.003242 and closed at 0.00324 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The 24-hour high was 0.003341, and the low was 0.003187. Total volume reached approximately 144.6 million, while notional turnover was ~$467,395 (based on average price ~$0.003233).

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern displayed a clear bearish trend in the early morning hours before a sharp reversal in the afternoon. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 13:30 and 14:45 ET, signaling a potential trend reversal. A bearish doji occurred at 04:00 ET, indicating indecision and possible support at 0.003196. Key resistance appears to be at 0.003294, while support is forming near 0.003214 and 0.003187.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be built around the bullish engulfing pattern observed during the afternoon breakout, using a 1.5% stop-loss below the entry price and a 3% target above the close of the engulfing candle. Given the divergence between volume and price in the morning and the subsequent strong reversal in the afternoon, this pattern may indicate a high-probability trade if confirmed by a break above 0.003294.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart suggest a shift from bearish to bullish bias in the afternoon, as price broke above both indicators. The 50-period moving average crossed the 100-period on the daily chart, forming a potential golden cross. Price is currently above all three main daily averages (50, 100, 200), indicating a continuation of the bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero in the afternoon, confirming the bullish breakout. RSI reached overbought territory (75–80) during the rebound, indicating a potential short-term correction. However, the positive divergence in RSI during the early morning low suggests resilience in the pair.

Bollinger Bands

The morning saw a contraction in the Bollinger Bands, signaling a possible breakout. Price then surged past the upper band, confirming increased volatility and bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply during the breakout phase, especially between 13:30 and 14:45 ET, with the 13:30 candle alone accounting for ~24.2 million in volume. Notional turnover increased in line with the breakout, suggesting strong conviction in the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The afternoon rebound from 0.003214 to 0.003341 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, suggesting strong resistance at 0.003294. On the 15-minute chart, a 38.2% retracement level was tested at 0.003265 but failed to hold, indicating stronger bearish pressure earlier in the session.

Outlook & Risk

The afternoon breakout above 0.003294 appears to signal a shift in momentum, but overbought RSI suggests a pullback may occur in the short term. A retest of key support at 0.003214 could offer a second chance for bullish entry. Traders should remain cautious of any divergence between price and volume and be prepared for potential volatility.