IoTeX/Yen Market Overview

• Price declined from 4.079 to 4.040, with oversold RSI and key support at 4.040.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with Bollinger Bands widening after early consolidation.
• Volume surged sharply in the late ET session, confirming a bearish breakout below key support.
• MACD turned negative, signaling bearish momentum; short-term Fibonacci levels suggest potential bounce.
• Divergence between price and turnover observed, with turnover spiking during the final leg lower.

IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) opened at 4.076 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4.079 and a low of 4.038 before closing at 4.040 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 384,491.9, with a notional turnover of 1,546,556.5 (based on volume and average price).

Structure & Formations

The pair experienced a bearish breakdown from a consolidation range, with a decisive close below 4.057 marking a key support level. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 08:00 and 08:30 ET as price moved from 4.064 to 4.040. A doji formed at 07:45 ET, signaling potential exhaustion near 4.057. Support levels to watch include 4.038, 4.040, and 4.035, while resistance is now at 4.047 and 4.057.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages have both turned bearish, crossing below price action in the final hours. Daily 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are also trending lower, confirming a broader bearish bias. The 50-day MA currently sits at 4.065, and a close above this level may suggest a potential short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the early ET hours and accelerated downward after the bearish engulfing pattern, confirming momentum on the downside. RSI has moved into oversold territory around 30, suggesting the possibility of a temporary bounce, though bearish momentum remains intact. A divergence between RSI and price was observed during the final leg down, indicating potential exhaustion or a false breakout scenario.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply in the late ET session, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range to over 0.04 in width. Price closed near the lower band at 4.038, a strong bearish signal. A rebound above the middle band at 4.050 could test the upper band at 4.060, but a failure to do so may confirm further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the 24-hour period, with the largest block at 08:00 ET (volume: 51,400.0) and again at 08:45 ET (volume: 60,815.0). Turnover also spiked during these intervals, indicating strong participation in the bearish move. A divergence occurred where price continued to fall while turnover remained flat in the late ET hours, suggesting possible exhaustion or reduced conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute move from 4.079 to 4.040, key retracement levels are 38.2% at 4.063, 50% at 4.059, and 61.8% at 4.055. A bounce from 4.038 may test these levels, but failure to hold 4.040 could extend the decline to 4.035 and beyond.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI align with a potential bounce scenario at 4.038-4.040. A backtest strategy could involve entering a long position on a close above 4.040 with a stop below 4.035 and a target at 4.057. This approach leverages Fibonacci and Bollinger Band dynamics, assuming a mean reversion after an aggressive bearish move. While not a high-probability reversal, the strategy aims to capture a bounce within the context of a larger downtrend.