IoTeX/Yen Market Overview for 2025-11-09

Summary
• IOTXJPY drifted higher after a sharp sell-off in early trading.
• Volume spiked during the 18:15–20:45 ET rally, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI approached overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term pullback.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-18:15 ET, indicating rising volatility.
• No decisive reversal patterns formed, but price consolidation suggests caution.

IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) opened at 1.681 and closed at 1.708 by 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.736 and a low of 1.675 over the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 4,874,371.0, while turnover (notional value) totaled 7,317,495.2 JPY. Price action showed a recovery from a morning dip, driven by a sharp 18:15–19:15 ET upswing.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a key support level at 1.675, where the pair bounced several times before the breakout. Between 18:15 and 20:45 ET, a bullish channel emerged with clear higher lows and higher highs. A morning bearish engulfing pattern failed to hold, as buyers retook control by mid-afternoon. A potential resistance cluster formed near 1.736–1.745, where the pair paused multiple times before consolidating.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the late afternoon, forming a golden cross that aligned with the price rally. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA moved higher but remained below the 200-period MA, indicating a bullish bias within a longer-term neutral trend. The 100-period MA acted as a dynamic support around 1.705–1.715 in the last four hours.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained positive and expanded in the 18:15–21:00 ET window, confirming the strength of the rally. The histogram showed a broadening bullish divergence. RSI climbed to 68–70 by 21:45 ET, signaling overbought conditions and raising the likelihood of a short-term correction. However, the lack of bearish momentum divergence suggests the trend could continue.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply after 18:15 ET, with the upper band expanding to 1.736 and the lower band compressing to 1.675. Price remained near the upper band for most of the afternoon and evening, suggesting strong bullish pressure. A pullback toward the mid-band (around 1.705) could trigger short-term buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 458,745 at 20:45 ET, marking the largest 15-minute trading block of the day. This coincided with the sharp move toward 1.756 and was followed by a moderate retreat. Notional turnover also spiked during the rally, confirming the move. No clear price-volume divergence was observed, which supports the idea that the trend remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found support at the 61.8% retracement level (around 1.675) during the early sell-off. The subsequent rally reached the 78.6% level (near 1.736), indicating a strong reversal from key support. On the daily timeframe, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels align with recent consolidation, suggesting these may act as psychological barriers for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong 18:15–20:45 ET rally, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on identifying entries at the 20-period MA crossover on the 15-minute chart. A long position could be initiated when the price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band with MACD above zero and RSI above 55. A stop-loss could be placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bearish move. A take-profit target could align with the 78.6% retracement level or the next key resistance at 1.745. This strategy leverages confirmed momentum and volatility signals.