IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) Market Overview

• IOTXJPY declined sharply after reaching a 24-hour high of 1.759, closing at 1.748 with a 1.738 support test.
• Volatility spiked midday with a 1.759–1.739 range, suggesting heightened interest and possible short-term divergence.
• Turnover surged near 1.731, indicating potential distribution or consolidation ahead of further directional clarity.
• RSI moved into oversold territory by late morning, hinting at possible near-term bounce or bearish continuation.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, aligning with the price drop and confirming elevated volatility.

IOTXJPY opened at 1.746 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.748 exactly one day later. The pair reached a high of 1.759 and a low of 1.738, with total volume of 10,475,709 and turnover of approximately ¥18,182,302 across the 24-hour period. Price action featured a bearish breakdown from key resistance around 1.752 and a consolidation phase near 1.732–1.746.

The structure of the 15-minute chart reveals multiple key levels. A strong resistance at 1.752 was tested twice, with the first break above confirmed by bullish momentum but quickly reversed. The low at 1.738 became a significant support, where price consolidated for several hours, suggesting a potential floor. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 1.752–1.748, indicating a shift in sentiment. A doji formed near 1.732, hinting at indecision after the sharp sell-off. These formations suggest a potential continuation toward 1.730–1.725, with a possible short-term bounce from 1.738.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly after the price drop, confirming a shift in trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was just above 1.746, suggesting a potential retest of that level before further bearish action. The 200-period MA remained neutral, positioned slightly above 1.746 as well, offering no immediate bullish bias. The convergence of short- and medium-term moving averages points to continued downward pressure unless the price reclaims 1.752 cleanly.

MACD showed bearish divergence, with a large negative histogram at the low of 1.738 and the line trending lower. RSI reached an oversold condition near 1.731, which might trigger a short-term bounce but is unlikely to reverse the overall bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly following the sharp sell-off, with price near the lower band, reinforcing the oversold condition and suggesting a potential retracement could be in play.

Volume spiked near key support and resistance levels, with the largest spike occurring near 1.731, where the price consolidated for several hours. Turnover confirmed the volume surge, with a notable amount of trading activity in that zone. The divergence between price and turnover during the consolidation phase suggests potential distribution or accumulation. However, with RSI in oversold territory and no clear reversal patterns, the likelihood of a sustained bounce remains low in the short term.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1.738 low to the 1.759 high show 61.8% at 1.746 and 38.2% at 1.752. Price action has bounced from the 61.8% level, reinforcing its importance as a potential near-term floor. On the daily chart, retracement levels from recent weekly highs suggest 1.730 as a critical support. The 1.746 level appears to act as a key line of resistance and potential support on retracements.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could focus on entries following confirmed bearish engulfing patterns at key resistance levels, such as 1.752, with an exit condition set at a price break below 1.746. Given the observed bearish divergence in the 15-minute RSI and MACD during the drop to 1.738, a short-biased strategy could look to exploit the bearish momentum. Additional refinements might include a trailing stop just above major swing highs or a fixed 1.5% stop-loss. A backtest across the IOTXJPY pair from 2022–2025 could identify how frequently the 1.746 level holds, and whether the 1.738 support proves reliable for short-term bounces.