IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) Market Overview

• Price fell sharply from a high of 4.026 to a low of 3.779, ending the day near 3.791.
• Strong bearish momentum was evident in early sessions with high volume and a breakdown below key support levels.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 30, hinting at possible short-term bounce potential.
• Volatility increased significantly as the price expanded beyond Bollinger Bands, signaling heightened uncertainty.

The IOTXJPY pair opened at 4.007 at 12:00 ET–1, reached a high of 4.026, and fell to a low of 3.779 before closing at 3.791 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 780,229.0 IOTX, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥3,115,214.00. The price action displayed sharp declines, forming bearish engulfing patterns and a breakdown below prior support levels.

Key support levels emerged around 3.78–3.80 and 3.75–3.77, while resistance appears to hold near 3.84 and 3.87. The 15-minute chart shows a 20-period moving average falling below the 50-period line, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price has fallen below the 200-period moving average, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.

The RSI indicator, currently at 30, signals overbought conditions, suggesting a short-term correction may be in play. MACD has remained negative, with the line below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating increased volatility, with the price now trading near the lower band, hinting at a possible rebound. Volume surged during the sharp sell-off in the early hours of September 19, but has since cooled, suggesting reduced conviction in the downward move.

Looking ahead, IOTXJPY may find near-term support at 3.75 and resistance at 3.85. A break below 3.75 could extend the decline toward 3.70, while a rebound above 3.85 could trigger a retracement to 3.90. Investors should remain cautious, as volatility remains high and sudden reversals are possible.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent 15-minute swing (3.779 to 4.026) suggest 61.8% at 3.895 and 38.2% at 3.836. These levels may offer potential entry or reversal points for traders. For daily moves, the 61.8% retracement is near 3.87, which could see renewed pressure if the pair attempts to rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering long positions at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (3.836) with a stop-loss placed below 3.75 and a target at 3.87–3.90, aligning with key RSI oversold signals and resistance zones. Short positions could be initiated at the 61.8% retracement (3.895) with a stop above 3.92 and a target near 3.85–3.80, leveraging the bearish momentum seen in the MACD and moving average crossovers. This hypothesis could be further validated by incorporating volume and turnover divergence checks to confirm entry signals and improve risk-adjusted returns.