Why Investors Should Prepare for a Fall 2025 Surge in IPOs

The summer of 2025 has been a cauldron of uncertainty, with tariff deadlines, legal battles, and geopolitical tensions threatening to boil over. Yet beneath the surface, a quiet revolution is brewing in the IPO market. After years of stagnation, companies like Klarna and Figma are poised to redefine the public markets—if investors heed the signals.

The Tariff Wildcard: A Clearing Horizon?

The July 9, 2025, deadline marked a pivotal moment for global trade. With tariffs on $3.4 trillion of goods hanging in the balance, companies faced a stark choice: delay going public or bet on a resolution. The U.S. Court of International Trade's temporary stay on tariffs and bilateral deals with key partners like the U.K. and Vietnam have created a fragile equilibrium.

While risks remain—China's tariff suspension expires August 12—market participants are already pricing in a “soft landing.” show that even modest tariff pauses could unlock $200 billion in pent-up IPO demand. Companies no longer need to factor in a 34% tariff on Chinese imports, making revenue projections far more credible.

The Pipeline: Klarna's Resurgence and Figma's Ambition

Klarna, once the poster child for fintech's excesses, has quietly turned a corner. Its valuation has doubled since March /24, driven by U.S. revenue growth of 33% in Q1 /25 and strategic moves like its Walmart partnership. The Swedish fintech's S-1 filing in March /25 signals a public debut could arrive by late autumn, assuming tariffs stabilize.

Meanwhile, Figma, the design software giant, filed its S-1 in April /25, targeting a $15–20 billion valuation. Its $12.5 billion post-tender offer valuation is a testament to demand for SaaS stability in volatile markets. Both companies exemplify a broader trend: post-pandemic unicorns are finally maturing, and the market is ready to reward them.

Lockup Expirations: The Crucible of Trust

The real test comes after the gong sounds. Lockup expiration periods—when insiders can sell shares—are make-or-break moments for IPOs. Take Circle, whose shares soared to $103.75 intraday in its March /25 debut before settling at $89.50. Or Chime, which closed 4% above its IPO price despite a volatile first day. These outcomes matter:

• Klarna's lockup expiration (likely Q1 /26) will hinge on its ability to sustain U.S. growth amid tariff clarity. A strong showing could validate its $9 billion post-money valuation.
• Figma's valuation premium will depend on enterprise adoption trends—data here is critical.

Investors should note: post-lockup performance correlates strongly with aftermarket demand. Companies that outperform during this phase—like Snowflake in 2020—become market darlings.

Why Now? The Perfect Storm of Conditions

1. Tariff Tailwinds: A resolution reduces the “what if?” factor for investors. Even a 10% baseline tariff is preferable to the 34% uncertainty.
2. Interest Rates: Fed rate cuts (expected 3–5 times in /25) will lower borrowing costs, easing pressure on IPO firms to deliver instant profitability.
3. Private-to-Public Momentum: Klarna's recovery and Figma's scale prove that valuation discipline works. Companies no longer need to chase $50 billion valuations to attract public buyers.

Investment Playbook for Fall 2025

• Buy the Pipeline: Klarna and Figma are the headline acts, but look for others in AI and healthcare (e.g., VeriCite, OncoSec).
• Hedge with ETFs: The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) or Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) offer diversified exposure to IPO candidates.
• Wait for Lockups: Avoid chasing post-IPO hype until lockups expire—this is when the true believers separate from the opportunists.

Conclusion: The IPO Market's Coming of Age

The fall of 2025 won't just be about new listings—it will be a referendum on the public markets' ability to absorb complexity. Companies that survive tariff storms and lockup expirations will earn the right to thrive. For investors, this is the moment to position aggressively. The next decade's winners are about to be priced.

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