Investors Value Kalshi at $12B as Prediction Markets Surge

Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market platform, has become a focal point in the high-stakes world of event trading, with venture capital investors now offering to value the company at up to $12 billion, according to a TradingView report. This follows a $300 million funding round in early October that valued the startup at $5 billion. The surge in investor interest highlights the growing appetite for platforms that allow users to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, from political events to sports contests.

The latest funding offers, which could push Kalshi's valuation to $10 billion or higher, come amid a broader boom in the prediction market sector. Rival platform Polymarket, which recently secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange at a $9 billion valuation, has also seen heightened activity. Both companies are eyeing expansion into sports betting, a sector that could amplify their growth. For instance, Kalshi partnered with Robinhood to launch a football prediction market in August, while Polymarket has positioned itself as a clearinghouse for DraftKings if the latter enters the space. The National Hockey League has already inked multiyear licensing agreements with both platforms, according to a Blockworks report.

Kalshi's rapid ascent is underscored by its recent achievement of $50 billion in annualized trading volume, a figure that reflects the platform's appeal as a regulated alternative to crypto-native venues. CEO Tarek Mansour has emphasized the company's ambition to integrate its prediction markets into "every large crypto application and exchange" within 12 months. However, the sector faces regulatory headwinds. While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sanctioned Kalshi's operations, state gaming regulators have contested aspects of its model, particularly around sports betting, according to a Bloomberg article. Legal uncertainties surrounding market manipulation and insider trading remain unresolved.

The competition between Kalshi and Polymarket is intensifying as both platforms vie for dominance. Intercontinental Exchange's $2 billion commitment to Polymarket underscores the stakes, but Kalshi's CFTC license and early court victories—such as a 2024 ruling allowing it to list presidential-election contracts—have given it a regulatory edge. Investors are betting that Kalshi's structured approach will secure its position in a market projected to grow as traditional financial institutions explore event trading as a new asset class.