La huida de los inversores de las acciones estadounidenses y el auge de las alternativas

The U.S. equity market in 2025 has been a study in contrasts. After a year marked by trade policy uncertainty and a record-high U.S. Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Trade Policy Index (peaking near 8,000), investors initially retreated from U.S. equities. Yet, by late summer, a seismic shift occurred: the AI investment cycle surged to the forefront, driving a resurgence in tech stocks and reshaping the landscape of global capital allocation. This article examines the interplay between investor risk appetite, asset allocation priorities, and the structural forces pushing capital toward alternatives.

The Ebb and Flow of U.S. Equities

The first half of 2025 saw a flight from U.S. equities as trade tensions and policy jitters spooked markets. However, this exodus was short-lived. By Q4, U.S. equity ETFs recorded a staggering $70 billion in inflows in November alone—their seventh-best month ever—putting them on track for over $600 billion in annual inflows. This rebound was fueled by the AI-driven capital expenditure (capex) boom, which contributed 1.3 percentage points to Q2 GDP growth and accounted for 30% of U.S. economic expansion in the first half of the year.

The SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) exemplified this trend, attracting $7.75 billion in inflows for the week ending January 2, 2026, despite a 0.70% price decline. This resilience underscores the market's pivot toward fundamentals, particularly in the AI sector. Hyperscalers like Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon led the charge, with projected 2025 capex of $342 billion—a 62% increase from 2024. Meanwhile, data center construction hit a record $40 billion annual rate, reflecting the infrastructure demands of AI adoption.

The Rise of Alternatives: A Structural Shift

While U.S. equities retained their allure, investors began reallocating capital to alternatives, driven by a desire for diversification and yield in a low-interest-rate environment. By 2025, alternative assets under management (AUM) surpassed $20 trillion—nearly tripling since 2014. Institutional investors, including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, now allocate 20–30% of portfolios to alternatives, up from single-digit levels in the early 2000s.

Private equity remains the dominant force, with large fundraising cycles and the privatization of companies extending the lifespan of private capital. Real estate and infrastructure, meanwhile, offer inflation protection and stable cash flows, making them attractive in a volatile macroeconomic climate. Commodities, too, have gained traction, particularly in energy transition and ESG-aligned strategies.

The U.S. dollar's 8% decline by year-end further accelerated diversification into non-U.S. equities and alternatives. Emerging markets like Taiwan and South Korea attracted $7.428 billion in inflows, while private credit and structured commodity pools expanded as investors sought inflation hedges. Regulatory changes, such as the redefinition of "accredited investors" and 401(k) access to alternatives, have also democratized access to these asset classes.

Generational and Institutional Dynamics

Millennials, in particular, are reshaping investor behavior. Unlike older generations, they view U.S. equities as riskier and favor alternatives for their innovation exposure and diversification benefits. By 2025, 80% of individuals with over $10 million in investable assets utilized alternatives, compared to 39% for those with $1–5 million. This wealth-driven allocation trend highlights the growing reliance on alternatives for performance and stability.

Institutional investors, meanwhile, are leveraging their scale and expertise to deploy capital in private equity, real estate, and infrastructure. These allocations are less speculative and more strategic, reflecting a long-term view of capital deployment. For example, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicted 3.8% Q3 GDP growth, yet financial and materials sectors faced outflows in November 2025, signaling caution in cyclicals.

Investment Advice: Balancing Risk and Return

The 2025 market environment demands a nuanced approach. While U.S. equities—particularly AI-driven tech stocks—remain a cornerstone of growth, investors must balance exposure with alternatives to mitigate risk. Here's how:

1. Tech Sector Focus: Allocate to AI-driven hyperscalers and infrastructure providers. The capex surge in data centers and GPU systems is a long-term trend, with hardware investment rising 41% year-over-year.
2. Diversify into Alternatives: Increase exposure to private equity, real estate, and commodities. These assets offer lower correlation with public markets and inflation protection.
3. Monitor Macro Signals: Keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index and interest rate differentials. A weaker dollar may continue to drive capital toward non-U.S. assets.
4. Leverage Regulatory Tailwinds: Take advantage of new investment vehicles like interval funds and 401(k) access to alternatives, which lower barriers for retail investors.

Conclusion

The investor flight from U.S. equities in 2025 was not a collapse but a recalibration. As AI reshapes the economy and alternatives mature as a core asset class, the key to navigating this market lies in balancing innovation with diversification. For investors, the message is clear: adapt to the shifting risk landscape by embracing both the opportunities in U.S. tech and the stability of alternatives. In a world of macroeconomic uncertainty, flexibility and foresight will define long-term success.