Invesco QQQ ETF Outlook: Moderate Buy with Upside Potential

The Invesco QQQ ETF is up 0.17% over the past five days and 10.07% year-to-date. According to TipRanks' analyst consensus, QQQ is a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $601.62, implying a 6.71% upside. The ETF's Smart Score is seven, indicating it is likely to perform in line with the market.

The Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) has shown robust performance, with a 0.17% increase over the past five days and a 10.07% year-to-date gain. According to TipRanks' analyst consensus, the ETF is a Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $601.62, implying a 6.71% upside. The ETF's Smart Score of seven suggests it is likely to perform in line with the broader market [2].

The QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, has been a key driver of Invesco's revenue growth. In the second quarter of 2025, the QQQ saw its assets under management jump 19% to $353 billion, making it one of the five largest ETFs in the world. Overall, Invesco's assets under management increased by 8.5% to a record $2 trillion [1].

In a significant development, Invesco has filed papers with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to change the operational structure of the QQQ from its current unit investment trust to an open-ended ETF. This change, if approved, could lead to higher revenue for Invesco. Currently, under the unit investment trust structure, Invesco earns an eight-basis point marketing fee, with the rest going to third parties. Under the new open-ended structure, Invesco would receive a higher percentage of the fees, potentially a four-basis point benefit [1].

Analysts at TD Cowen have termed this a "game-changing event" for Invesco, predicting earnings accretion as a result. TD Cowen upgraded Invesco stock to a buy with a target of $25, up from $17.50. Barclays analysts estimate that this change could result in $140 million in incremental revenue for Invesco, with the bulk of it coming in as pure profit [1].

Invesco's stock price has risen despite mixed second-quarter earnings results. The company saw a 2.2% growth in revenue to $1.5 billion, which easily topped estimates of $1.1 billion. However, the firm reported a net loss of $12.5 million in the quarter, down from a $171 million net gain in the same quarter a year ago. This loss was largely due to a $159 million loss on costs related to the company repurchasing $1.0 billion of its outstanding Series A Preferred Stock held by MassMutual [1].

The QQQ ETF's top holdings with the highest upside potential include AppLovin (APP), Micron Technology (MU), Atlassian Corporation (TEAM), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Adobe Systems (ADBE). Meanwhile, its holdings with the greatest downside potential include Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Tesla Motors (TSLA), Shopify (SHOP), KLA Corporation (KLAC), and On Semiconductor (ON) [2].

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/analysis/td-cowen-calls-qqq-restructure-a-game-changer-for-invesco-earnings-200664216
[2] https://www.tipranks.com/news/qqq-etf-news-7-21-2025