Intuitive Machines’ Backlog Categorization, LTV Delays, and PPE Readiness Claims Don’t Match

Date of Call: Mar 19, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $44.8M for Q4 2025, driven by CLPS, OLMS, and NSNS; full year 2025 revenue not explicitly stated, but year excluding OLMS was up ~65% YOY.
• Gross Margin: 19% positive gross margin for Q4 2025, driven by higher margin services revenue like NSNS and cost reductions.
• Operating Margin: Operating loss of $33.1M for Q4 2025 versus a loss of $13.4M in Q4 2024, driven by acquisition-related transaction expenses and growth investments.

Guidance:

• 2026 revenue expected in the range of $900 million-$1 billion, representing a nearly 5x increase from 2025 and ~66% supported by contracted backlog.
• Targeting positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026.
• Revenue expected to be level throughout the year, with an anomaly in January due to Lanteris acquisition timing.
• Potential upside from Artemis program acceleration and related Near Space Network contract acceleration.

Business Commentary:

Revenue Growth and Strategic Acquisitions:

• Intuitive Machines expects 2026 revenue to approach $1 billion, nearly a 5x increase from 2025.
• The growth is driven by the acquisition of KinetX and Lanteris Space Systems, which significantly expand the company's scale, addressable market, and growth opportunities.

Diversification of Revenue Streams:

• The combined portfolio of Intuitive Machines has a diversified revenue mix with approximately 40% commercial business, 40% civil space, and 20% national security customers.
• This diversification is a result of expanding into national security space programs and acquiring Lanteris, which brings established spacecraft platforms and reliable revenue generation.

Focus on Lunar and Space Infrastructure:

• Intuitive Machines is progressing with its third lunar mission (IM-3) and plans to launch its first lunar data relay satellite, aiming to start the operational task orders of the $4.82 billion Near Space Network services contract.
• The strategic focus on lunar infrastructure is supported by the U.S. government's increased emphasis on lunar exploration, as outlined in the president’s executive order to return Americans to the Moon by 2028.

Strengthened Financial Position:

• The company completed a $175 million strategic equity investment to advance communications and data processing networks, strengthening its balance sheet.
• This investment, along with the acquisitions, positions Intuitive Machines to fund current operations and continue investing in strategic growth initiatives.

Increased Backlog and Program Momentum:

• Backlog at year-end was $213.1 million, with approximately 60%-65% expected to be revenue in 2026.
• The backlog growth is due to awards in national security programs and the anticipation of decisions on large programs like Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services and NASA’s CLPS CT-4 mission.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "2025 was a transformational year for Intuitive Machines." "We expect 2026 revenue to approach $1 billion, nearly a 5x increase from 2025." "The future is bright." "We believe this positions us to deliver record revenue, achieve positive adjusted EBITDA, and continue scaling our role in the emerging space economy."

Q&A:

• Question from Josh Sullivan (Jones Trading): Key in on the Lanteris integration. Where are you guys ahead of schedule? Where are the hurdles and what’s been the customer response?
  Response: Integration is going very well, customers are excited, and transition activities are ahead of schedule.

• Question from Suji DeSilva (ROTH Capital): Can you talk about the key programs to help increase the national security mix?
  Response: Key programs include SDA Tranche 3 Tracking Layer, Golden Dome, and an orbital transfer vehicle development, with proposals in the pipeline.

• Question from Suji DeSilva (ROTH Capital): On 2026 revenue guidance, talk about linearity and potential upside. Also, where is LTV in the selection process?
  Response: Revenue expected to be level throughout the year, with an anomaly in January. LTV award decision is imminent but timing is pending.

• Question from Andres Sheppard (Cantor Fitzgerald): What can Intuitive Machines do now with Lanteris that it couldn't before? Also, how might the LTV decision be determined?
  Response: Can now leverage Lanteris's satellite bus production and high-reliability platforms to enhance data relay and other services. LTV decision may result in one primary and one backup award or two full awards.

• Question from Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity): Talk about operational changes at Lanteris to perform on firm fixed price contracts.
  Response: Lanteris has been streamlined with efficient production, appropriate margins, and a right-sized workforce and facilities.

• Question from Edison Yu (Deutsche Bank): How do you think about data centers in space and the technical capabilities Lanteris brings?
  Response: Lanteris brings the power propulsion element as a potential node for data centers. Edge computing in space is key, and architecture may involve nodes in the geo belt rather than large LEO constellations.

• Question from Jonathan Siegmann (Stifel): Given Artemis restructuring and LTV award delay, is there enough time to complete it? Also, is the tracking layer independent of SDA transport layer shifts?
  Response: LTV schedule is independent of Artemis V, giving Intuitive Machines control over timing. Tracking layer is not affected by SDA transport layer considerations and is expected to continue growing.

• Question from Michael Ciarmoli (KeyBanc Capital Markets): Does the space superiority executive order accelerate any initiatives or shift focus?
  Response: Company is working with NASA to streamline acquisition and accelerate development to support the executive order's goals for a lunar presence.

• Question from Samantha Styron (Bank of America): How do you see the competitive landscape evolving given Artemis restructuring and increased interest from other players?
  Response: Increased cadence of lunar missions is positive for Intuitive Machines, with CLPS 2.0 expected to be larger and more focused on engineered systems and sustained presence.

• Question from Griffin Boss (B. Riley Securities): What is the scale and scope expectation for CLPS 2.0?
  Response: CLPS 2.0 is expected to be larger than CLPS 1.0, with a focus on increased mission cadence, block buys, heavier cargo, and more engineered systems, though exact dollar amount is not yet known.

• Question from Daniel (Craig-Hallum): Can you walk us through expectations for organic growth?
  Response: Approximately 66% of 2026 guided revenue is from Lanteris and 33% from Intuitive Machines, but more granularity will be provided after year-end financials.

• Question from Greg Pendy (Clear Street): How has demand for NSN on the defense side changed given international ambitions on the moon?
  Response: International partnerships with Leonardo and Telespazio, and with JAXA, are being formed to create interconnected networks. There is also expressed interest in using the network for space domain awareness.

Contradiction Point 1

Nature and Composition of Lanteris' Backlog

Contradiction on whether backlog is split by end market or program type.

Xin Yu (Deutsche Bank) - Xin Yu (Deutsche Bank)

2025Q4: Lanteris' backlog is roughly split as 25% defense, 25% civil, and 50% commercial. - Stephen Altemus(CEO)

What are the key national security programs driving mix improvement, and how does the 2026 revenue guidance's linearity and potential upside align with the current status of the Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) selection process? - Alexander Christian Preston (BofA Securities)

2025Q3: The commercial portion refers to GEO communications satellites (1,300 series). The tracking layer work is classified under the national security (defense) portion. - Stephen Altemus(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Status and Readiness of the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE)

Contradiction on the readiness and shipping status of the PPE satellite.

"What are your key takeaways from the earnings report?" - Edison Yu (Deutsche Bank)

2025Q4: The Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) is a critical node... it is 'the most powerful power-generating spacecraft ever built' and can support storage, transmission, and edge computing in space. - Stephen Altemus(CEO)

What is your perspective on data center architecture in space, and how does Lanteris contribute technically? - Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity Corp.)

2025Q3: The most powerful satellite for NASA's Artemis program, the power propulsion element, is essentially complete and ready to ship. - Stephen Altemus(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

LTVS Award and Delivery Timeline

Expectations for the LTVS contract award and its delivery schedule shifted significantly.

Jonathan Siegmann (Stifel) - Jonathan Siegmann (Stifel)

2025Q4: An award decision is 'ready' but the exact timing is pending... The proposed delivery is on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy... No significant delays to the proposed plan are seen. - Steve Altemus(CEO)

Given the Artemis restructuring and LTV award delay, can the LTV mission be completed on time post-award, and how does the SDA's Tracking Layer differ from the Transport Layer to mitigate risks from SpaceX constellation reliance? - Suji Desilva (ROTH Capital Partners)

2025Q2: The company is confident in its competitiveness for the upcoming **CLPS CT4 award** (expected by end of 2025)... - Steve Altemus(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

CLPS 2.0 Program Scale and Focus

The characterization of the next CLPS program's scale and objectives changed from a specific, high-value contract to a broader, undefined initiative.

Griffin Boss (B. Riley Securities) - Griffin Boss (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q4: CLPS 2.0 is **expected to be larger** than CLPS 1.0... The dollar amount is still being determined by NASA's budget rejiggering. - Steve Altemus(CEO)

What is the expected scale and scope of CLPS 2.0, and will it be larger than CLPS 1.0 given the increased mission cadence? - Suji Desilva (ROTH Capital Partners)

2025Q2: The **Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services (LTVS) contract** is highlighted as the most transformative award, with the first phase potentially worth **~$1 billion**. The company is in the 'pole position' for this award, expected around **late November/December**. - Stephen Altemus(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

LTV Award Timeline and Impact of Artemis Restructuring

Conflicting statements on whether Artemis program changes delay the LTV mission.

Jonathan Siegmann (Stifel) - Jonathan Siegmann (Stifel)

2025Q4: There was a several-month delay from the expected November award... No significant delays to the proposed plan are seen. - Steve Altemus(CEO)

"With Artemis restructuring and LTV award delays, can the LTV mission be completed on time?" - Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity)

2025Q1: The LTVS proposal is due in late July with an award for a delivery mission in November. The procurement is moving forward despite Artemis program changes. - Steve Altemus(CEO)