Intuit cae un 4,4% ante una falta de optimismo técnico y una volátil actividad de opciones: ¿qué es lo que viene?

Summary
• Intuit (INTU) slumps to $622.23, a 4.39% drop from its $662.42 previous close
• Intraday range spans $661.99 high to $622.23 low, signaling sharp selloff
• Options chain sees 16.76M turnover, with 630-strike call as top traded contract

Intuit’s stock is in freefall as bearish technicals and aggressive options activity amplify downward pressure. The $633.37 intraday price reflects a 4.39% collapse, with the 52-week low of $532.65 now within striking distance. Traders are scrambling to parse the move, with the options chain revealing leveraged bets on further declines and a sector-wide selloff in application software stocks.

Bearish Technicals and Options Volatility Drive Sharp Decline
The selloff is rooted in a confluence of bearish technical signals and speculative options activity. Intuit’s price has pierced below its 30-day ($659.02), 100-day ($668.13), and 200-day ($682.33) moving averages, confirming a breakdown in long-term support. The MACD histogram (-0.077) and RSI (49.99) suggest momentum is shifting decisively lower. Meanwhile, the options chain reveals aggressive short-term bearish positioning, with the 630-strike call (INTU20260109C630) trading at a 68.4% price drop and a 56.07% leverage ratio, indicating leveraged traders are capitalizing on the rout.

Application Software Sector Under Pressure as Microsoft Drags Down Peers
The application software sector is broadly weak, with Microsoft (MSFT) leading the decline at -2.3% intraday. As the sector’s bellwether, Microsoft’s selloff reflects broader macroeconomic concerns, including rising interest rates and slowing enterprise software demand. Intuit’s -4.39% drop outpaces Microsoft’s move, suggesting additional stock-specific pressures, such as technical breakdowns and leveraged options activity, are amplifying the sector’s weakness.

Bearish Options and ETFs to Watch in a Volatile Intuit Environment
• 200-day average: $682.33 (below current price)
• RSI: 49.99 (neutral to bearish)
• MACD: 3.93 (below signal line 4.00)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $633.37 (below lower band $649.95)

Intuit’s technicals paint a bearish picture, with the 200-day MA acting as a critical resistance level. Traders should monitor the $659.93–$665.20 200D support/resistance zone. The options chain offers two high-conviction plays for bearish scenarios:

• INTU20260109C630 (Call):
- Strike: $630, Expiry: 2026-01-09
- IV: 24.38% (moderate), Leverage: 56.07%
- Delta: 0.5786 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -2.1168 (high time decay)
- Turnover: 107,772 (liquid)
- Gamma: 0.017098 (responsive to price swings)
- Payoff at 5% downside ($599.15): $0 (strike above price)
- This contract offers leveraged exposure to further declines, with high liquidity and gamma to benefit from volatility.

• INTU20260109C635 (Call):
- Strike: $635, Expiry: 2026-01-09
- IV: 22.52% (moderate), Leverage: 79.20%
- Delta: 0.48999 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -1.8537 (high time decay)
- Turnover: 98,673 (liquid)
- Gamma: 0.018875 (responsive to price swings)
- Payoff at 5% downside ($599.15): $0 (strike above price)
- The 635-strike call provides higher leverage (79.20%) and moderate delta, ideal for aggressive bearish bets.

Aggressive bears should consider INTU20260109C630 into a breakdown below $622.50, the next key support level.

Backtest Intuit Stock Performance
The backtest of Intuit (INTU) after a -4% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-Day win rate is 55%, the 10-Day win rate is 51.88%, and the 30-Day win rate is 57.50%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 3.21%, which occurred on day 58, suggesting that INTU has a tendency to recover from such intraday dips with modest gains.

Bullish Bounce Unlikely Without Clear Reversal Signal
Intuit’s bearish technicals and leveraged options activity suggest the selloff is far from over. Traders should watch for a breakdown below the 200-day MA ($682.33) or a retest of the 52-week low ($532.65). The sector’s weakness, led by Microsoft’s -2.3% move, adds macroeconomic headwinds. For now, short-side positioning via high-leverage options like INTU20260109C630 offers the most compelling risk/reward. Watch for $622.50 support or regulatory clarity to trigger a reversal.