Internet Computer/Tether Market Overview

• ICP/USDT traded in a 24-hour range of $4.433–$4.701, closing at $4.495 with bearish momentum.
• Price found key resistance near $4.66 and broke support at $4.545, signaling possible continuation lower.
• Volatility expanded mid-day before consolidating near $4.50, with divergent price-volume action noted.
• RSI hit oversold territory late, hinting at short-term bounces but not necessarily trend reversals.
• Bollinger Bands saw price sit well below the 20-period midline, indicating bearish bias and potential for a rebound.

Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) opened at $4.609 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.495 by October 4 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $4.701 and a low of $4.433. Total trading volume reached 1,454,414.41 ICP, while notional turnover totaled $6,756,000 (USD equivalent based on USDT values).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a strong bearish bias, particularly after a sharp sell-off from the $4.66–$4.70 range. A key resistance zone formed between $4.65 and $4.68, where the price stalled for multiple hours before breaking down. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around $4.60–$4.63 in the early morning hours, followed by a doji near $4.50, suggesting temporary indecision among traders. A critical support level appears to be forming around $4.46–$4.48, where price found a floor multiple times. A breakdown below $4.43 could trigger a larger-scale bearish move.

Moving Averages and MACD / RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearish throughout the day, with the 50-line crossing below the 20-line into a bearish “death cross” formation. MACD remained in negative territory, with the histogram showing increasing bearish momentum as the price declined. RSI reached oversold levels near 30 late into the day, suggesting a possible short-term bounce, though this does not confirm a reversal in the broader trend.

On the daily chart, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMA lines all remained above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The RSI on the daily chart was also in neutral to slightly bearish territory, suggesting no immediate overbought conditions.

Bollinger Bands and Volume

Bollinger Bands saw a significant expansion early in the session, reflecting increased volatility during the sell-off from the $4.70 peak. Price spent much of the session below the 20-period midline, especially after breaking below $4.545. This positioning indicates a high degree of bearish pressure.

Volume activity was mixed, with sharp increases during the sell-off from the $4.66–$4.70 range and again near $4.50–$4.52. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with divergence noted between price and volume during the $4.54–$4.56 range, where volume declined despite a sharp price move lower. This divergence may signal exhaustion or a potential short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $4.66 to $4.495, key levels at 38.2% ($4.557) and 61.8% ($4.518) coincided with temporary support and consolidation. On the daily timeframe, a retracement from the recent high near $4.70 to the low of $4.433 suggests a 61.8% level near $4.58, which was tested twice but failed to hold. This reinforces the bearish bias and suggests that any short-term rallies may face resistance at $4.54–$4.56.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish structure and the oversold RSI reading, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short-term long trade on a bounce above the $4.46–$4.48 support zone, with a tight stop-loss below this range. This would capitalize on the possible bounce while respecting the broader bearish trend. Alternatively, a short-position entry could be triggered on a breakdown below $4.43, with a target near $4.37–$4.39 (next Fibonacci level) and a stop above $4.50. This strategy would aim to exploit the continuation of the bearish move while managing risk through defined levels.