Las opciones de compra de Interactive Brokers suben un 2.54% en el medio de un optimismo de los analistas y un flujo de opciones: ¿qué causa el incremento?

Summary
• IBKR surges 2.54% to $64.54, hitting a 52-week high of $73.35
• Analysts project 27.3% upside to $80.13, with EPS revisions signaling stronger earnings
• Options volume spikes on 20 contracts, with leveraged calls at 65/66 strikes attracting attention

Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) is trading at its highest level since December 2025, driven by a confluence of analyst optimism, earnings momentum, and strategic options positioning. The stock’s 2.54% intraday gain reflects a broader narrative of sector strength and speculative fervor, as traders bet on its potential to outperform the Financial Services sector. With the 52-week range spanning $32.82 to $73.35, the current price sits 8.6% below its peak but 100% above its 200-day moving average of $65.75.

Analyst Price Targets and Earnings Revisions Ignite Momentum
The surge in IBKR is directly tied to Wall Street’s bullish price targets, which average $80.13—a 27.3% upside from its current price. Analysts have revised earnings estimates higher, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate rising 0.2% over 30 days. This upward revision, coupled with the stock’s Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), signals strong near-term earnings potential. Additionally, the stock’s 30-day RSI of 42.06 suggests it is neither overbought nor oversold, allowing for a balanced technical backdrop. The recent 2.54% gain aligns with a broader trend of AI-driven CapEx optimism, as IBKR’s global market access and crypto integration position it to benefit from macro tailwinds.

Financial Services Sector Gains Altitude: Schwab Trails IBKR’s Rally
The Financial Services sector is in a bull phase, with the S&P 500 Financials Index up 16.38% year-to-date. However, IBKR’s 46.83% YTD gain far outpaces sector peers like The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW), which rose 1.88% intraday. Schwab’s 1.88% move, while positive, underscores IBKR’s unique positioning in algorithmic trading and global market expansion. The sector’s average P/E of 30.8x aligns with IBKR’s 30.8x multiple, but IBKR’s higher earnings revisions and options activity suggest it is outperforming on both fundamental and speculative fronts.

Options and ETFs for a Volatile Rally: Leveraged Calls and Gamma-Driven Plays
• 200-day average: $65.75 (above current price)
• RSI: 42.06 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.88 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.78 (bearish), Histogram: -0.10 (diverging)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $67.12, Middle $63.98, Lower $60.83 (price near upper band)

IBKR’s technicals suggest a short-term consolidation phase, with the 200-day MA acting as a key support. The RSI’s neutrality and Bollinger Bands’ upper proximity indicate a potential pullback, but the 27.3% analyst upside and strong earnings revisions justify a bullish stance. For ETF exposure, consider XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR) to mirror sector momentum.

Top Options Plays:
1. IBKR20251226C65
• Type: Call
• Strike: $65
• Expiration: 2025-12-26
• IV: 26.53% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 85.83% (high)
• Delta: 0.4176 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1801 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1544 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 5,509 (liquid)
This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario. A 5% move to $67.72 would yield a payoff of $2.72 per contract, with gamma amplifying gains as the stock rises.

2. IBKR20251226C66
• Type: Call
• Strike: $66
• Expiration: 2025-12-26
• IV: 26.21% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 157.00% (very high)
• Delta: 0.2727 (low sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1296 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.1330 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 5,688 (highly liquid)
This contract’s high leverage and gamma make it a speculative play for a breakout above $66. A 5% move to $67.77 would generate a $1.77 payoff, with theta decay manageable given the short-term horizon.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize IBKR20251226C65 for a balanced leveraged bet, while IBKR20251226C66 suits high-risk traders targeting a sharp rally.

Backtest Interactive Brokers Group Stock Performance
The backtest of IBKR's performance following a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 59.89%, the 10-Day win rate is 61.37%, and the 30-Day win rate is 66.17%, suggesting that IBKR tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return observed was 10.38% over 30 days, indicating that while there is volatility, IBKR can deliver significant gains in the short to medium term.

IBKR’s Rally Gains Legs: Watch $66.73 Resistance and Schwab’s Momentum
Interactive Brokers’ 2.54% surge reflects a confluence of analyst optimism, earnings momentum, and strategic options positioning. The stock’s 52-week high of $73.35 remains a distant target, but the 27.3% analyst upside and strong earnings revisions suggest the rally is far from over. Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $65.75 and the upper Bollinger Band at $67.12. Schwab’s 1.88% intraday gain highlights sector strength, but IBKR’s options activity and earnings trajectory make it the standout play. Aggressive bulls should target a breakout above $66.73 (200D resistance) and consider IBKR20251226C65 for leveraged exposure.