Intel Surges 6.41% on Bullish Technical Signals, Extends Two-Day Rally to 8.55% Gains

Intel (INTC) has surged 6.41% in the most recent session, extending a two-day rally with cumulative gains of 8.55%. This sharp rebound follows a volatile correction phase, suggesting potential short-term momentum. Below is a structured technical analysis of the stock’s recent behavior.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action features a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, with a long white candle (2025-09-24) consuming the prior bearish session. Key support levels are identified at $28.73 (2025-09-22 low) and $24.05 (2025-09-02 low), both of which have historically contained downward momentum. Resistance is clustered at $30.20 (2025-09-23 high) and $31.70 (2025-09-24 high). A breakout above $31.70 would target $32.50, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent $24–$31.22 uptrend.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (estimated ~$28.50) and 200-day MA (~$25.00) are in ascending order, confirming a medium-term bullish bias. However, the 100-day MA (~$27.80) is approaching the 50-day MA, suggesting potential convergence. If the price sustains above the 50-day MA, it strengthens the case for a continuation of the uptrend. A crossover below the 50-day MA would signal caution, particularly if volume declines.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has transitioned from negative to positive territory, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on 2025-09-24—a “golden cross” suggesting short-term bullish momentum. The KDJ indicator (Stochastic) shows the %K line rising above %D, reinforcing the near-term overbought condition (RSI at ~72). However, the RSI’s proximity to overbought levels raises caution about a potential pullback. Divergence between price highs and RSI peaks should be monitored for early reversal signals.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the bands widening to ~$3.00 width. The price is currently near the upper band ($31.70), indicating short-term overextension. A reversion toward the 20-day SMA (~$29.50) is probable, especially if the RSI fails to confirm higher closes. The lower band at ~$27.00 could act as dynamic support if the trend reverses.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked on 2025-09-24 (164.5M shares) and 2025-09-23 (126.3M shares), validating the recent rally. However, volume has not yet surpassed the 2025-09-18 surge (225.7M shares), which accompanied a 22.77% jump. This suggests the current bullish move may lack follow-through unless volume escalates further.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (14-day) is currently ~72, indicating overbought conditions. While this is not a sell signal in isolation, it highlights the need for caution. A close below 60 would signal weakening momentum, while a retest of the 70 level with declining volume could confirm a topping pattern.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels from the $24–$31.22 move include 38.2% at $28.50, 50% at $27.61, and 61.8% at $26.72. The price’s current position near $31.22 aligns with the 78.6% extension, suggesting a high probability of a pullback to test the 50% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A MACD golden cross strategy applied to INTC from 2022 to the present shows mixed efficacy. While 29 signals were generated, the 3-day win rate of 55.17% and 10-day win rate of 41.38% indicate limited reliability. The 30-day win rate of 48.28% and maximum return of 1.66% underscore the strategy’s limitations in capturing sustained trends. This aligns with the current technical environment, where overbought RSI and diverging KDJ lines suggest diminishing momentum. A refined approach might incorporate Fibonacci retracement levels to time exits, as the 38.2% retracement at $28.50 offers a probabilistic target for profit-taking. The confluence of MACD bullish signals and Fibonacci support could provide a more robust framework, though volume confirmation remains critical to validate breakouts.