Intel Surges 2.76% on $5 Billion Nvidia Stake as 2026 Roadmap Gains Momentum

Summary
• Intel (INTC) surges 2.76% to $37.69, closing above $38.26 intraday high
• $5 billion private share sale to Nvidia secures 4% stake, signaling strategic AI collaboration
• Memory chip price spikes and 2026 product roadmap fuel mixed market sentiment
• Turnover surges to 42.8 million shares, outpacing 1.01% turnover rate benchmark

Intel’s stock ignited a sharp intraday rally, driven by the completion of a landmark $5 billion equity placement with Nvidia. The transaction, finalized on December 26, not only injected liquidity but also forged a rare strategic alliance between two semiconductor titans. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $44.02, investors are weighing the implications of this partnership against looming challenges in the PC and memory markets.

Nvidia's $5 Billion Stake Ignites Intel's Bullish Momentum
Intel’s 2.76% intraday surge was catalyzed by the completion of a $5 billion private share sale to Nvidia, granting the latter a 4% stake in the chipmaker. The transaction, executed at a $23.28 discount to Intel’s prior market price, reflects Nvidia’s strategic positioning in the AI era. By integrating Intel’s x86 CPUs with Nvidia’s AI GPUs and NVLink technology, the partnership aims to accelerate next-generation AI systems and PCs. This move not only provides Intel with critical capital but also signals a shift in competitive dynamics, as both firms align to counter AMD and Qualcomm’s advancements in AI and PC chips.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Intel’s AI-Driven Volatility
• Technical Indicators: RSI at 24.72 (oversold), 200-day MA at $27.33 (far below), Bollinger Bands (Lower: $33.67, Middle: $38.69, Upper: $43.71)
• ETF/Options: No leveraged ETF data available; focus on options liquidity and volatility

Intel’s price action suggests a short-term bullish bias, with the RSI indicating oversold conditions and the stock trading near the lower Bollinger Band. The 30-day moving average at $37.69 aligns with current levels, suggesting potential consolidation. For aggressive positioning, consider the following options:

• INTC20260109C38: Call option with $38 strike, 47.39% IV, 0.47 delta, -0.113 theta, 0.144 gamma, $796,990 turnover. High gamma and moderate delta suggest strong sensitivity to price moves, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target price: $39.58).
• INTC20260109C39.5: Call option with $39.5 strike, 44.78% IV, 0.289 delta, -0.084 theta, 0.116 gamma, $57,218 turnover. High leverage ratio (73.86%) and gamma make it a high-reward play if the stock breaks above $40.

Payoff Estimation: A 5% upside to $39.58 would yield $1.58 per share for INTC20260109C38 and $0.08 for INTC20260109C39.5. Aggressive bulls may consider INTC20260109C38 into a bounce above $38.50.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
The backtest of Intel's (INTC) performance after an intraday surge of at least 3% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day and 10-day win rates are above 46%, the 30-day win rate is slightly higher at 51.24%, indicating that longer-term gains are more likely. However, the average returns over the same periods are negative, with the 3-day return being -0.10%, the 10-day return being -0.36%, and the 30-day return being -0.03%. This suggests that although INTC has a higher probability of short-term gains, the overall performance after the surge has been lackluster, with the maximum return being only 0.90% over a 30-day period.

Bullish Setup Confirmed: Watch $38.50 Breakout for AI-Driven Rally
Intel’s strategic alignment with Nvidia and its 2026 product roadmap position the stock for sustained momentum, provided memory price pressures ease. The $38.50 level represents a critical psychological threshold; a breakout here could validate the stock’s return to multi-year highs. With Nvidia (NVDA) down 0.04% as sector leader, cross-sector dynamics remain a watchpoint. Investors should prioritize options with high gamma and moderate delta for short-term gains, while long-term holders may benefit from the 52-week high retest in early 2026.