Intel Surges 3.17% on Trump Meeting Amid Semiconductor Sector Turmoil

Summary
• Intel (INTC) jumps 3.17% to $21.3054 after CEO Lip-Bu Tan meets with President Trump.
• Trump’s Truth Social post shifts sentiment, reversing prior calls for Tan’s resignation.
• Sector peers like AMD and Nvidia rally 0.45% and 2.59% respectively, reflecting broader tech optimism.

Intel’s sharp intraday rebound follows a high-stakes meeting between CEO Lip-Bu Tan and President Trump, which reversed weeks of political scrutiny. The stock’s 3.17% surge—despite a 52-week low of $17.665—highlights the volatile interplay of corporate governance and geopolitical dynamics in the semiconductor sector.

Trump’s Pivot Sparks Intel Rally
Intel’s 3.17% intraday surge stems from President Trump’s abrupt reversal of his public criticism of CEO Lip-Bu Tan. After demanding Tan’s resignation last week over alleged China ties, Trump’s Truth Social post on Tuesday emphasized a “candid and constructive” meeting with Tan and Cabinet members. This shift, coupled with Intel’s reaffirmation of its “America First” commitments, calmed investor fears. The stock’s rebound also reflects broader optimism about U.S.-China tech tensions easing, as Trump hinted at collaborative efforts to bolster domestic semiconductor leadership.

Semiconductor Sector Navigates Tariff Risks and AI Momentum
The semiconductor sector remains under pressure from Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on chip imports, which could disrupt supply chains for firms like TSMC and Samsung. However, AI-driven demand for advanced chips—led by AMD’s 0.45% rise and Nvidia’s 2.59% gain—offsets some of these risks. Intel’s 3.17% jump contrasts with its peers’ more muted moves, underscoring the unique political and operational challenges it faces.

Options and ETFs for Navigating Intel’s Volatility
• GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW): Boldly leveraged at 2x, this ETF surged 5.90% today, amplifying Intel’s bullish momentum.
• RSI: 31.63 (oversold), suggesting potential rebound.
• MACD: -0.588 (bearish), but signal line at -0.478 hints at short-term divergence.
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $21.3054 near the middle band ($21.292), indicating consolidation.
• 200-day MA: $21.65 (above current price), signaling bearish bias.

Top Options Contracts:
• INTC20250822C21:
- Call option, strike $21, expiration 2025-08-22
- IV: 46.18% (high volatility), Leverage: 23.76%, Delta: 0.610 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.077 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.2238 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: 1.1M
- Why it stands out: High gamma and leverage make it ideal for a short-term bullish breakout. If Intel breaks above $21.50, this contract could capitalize on rapid price acceleration.
- Payoff at 5% upside ($22.37): $1.37 per contract, yielding ~58% return.
• INTC20250822C21.5:
- Call option, strike $21.5, expiration 2025-08-22
- IV: 46.86% (high volatility), Leverage: 32.89%, Delta: 0.495 (balanced sensitivity), Theta: -0.070 (moderate time decay), Gamma: 0.2293 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 234K
- Why it stands out: Strong gamma and leverage position it to benefit from a sustained rally above $21.50. High turnover ensures liquidity for entry/exit.
- Payoff at 5% upside ($22.37): $0.87 per contract, yielding ~33% return.

Action Plan: Aggressive bulls should target INTC20250822C21 for a breakout above $21.50, while conservative traders may use INTC20250822C21.5 as a safer play. Watch for a break above the 200-day MA ($21.65) to confirm a reversal.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
The backtest of Intel's (INTC) performance after a 3% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 47.43%, indicating a moderate probability of a positive return in the short term, the longer-term returns are negative. The 10-day return is -0.77%, and the 30-day return is -1.72%. This suggests that while INTC may experience a brief uptick following a 3% surge, it is likely to decline in value in the following days and weeks.

Intel’s Trump-Driven Rally: A Short-Term Play Amid Sector Uncertainty
Intel’s 3.17% rebound hinges on Trump’s shifting stance toward Tan and the sector’s ability to navigate tariff risks. While the stock’s short-term technicals (oversold RSI, consolidating Bollinger Bands) suggest a potential bounce, its long-term bearish trend (200-day MA above price) and sector-wide tariff pressures remain headwinds. Investors should monitor the $21.50 level for a breakout confirmation and consider the INTW ETF for leveraged exposure. With AMD’s 0.45% rise signaling sector resilience, now is the time to position for a Trump-driven near-term rally—but keep a close eye on the 52-week low ($17.665) as a critical support.