Intel Surges 3.29% on Nvidia Deal Approval and Arizona Fab Progress: Can This Momentum Sustain?

Summary
• Intel (INTC) surges 3.29% to $37.475, hitting an intraday high of $37.58 amid regulatory clearance of the $5B Nvidia partnership.
• The Arizona 18A node production ramps up, with Intel claiming 'turned the corner' on advanced manufacturing.
• TSMC (TSM) trails with a 1.89% gain, highlighting sector divergence as Intel's foundry bets gain traction.

Intel's sharp intraday rally reflects a confluence of regulatory green lights, strategic partnerships, and manufacturing progress. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $44.02, investors are weighing whether this momentum can outlast sector volatility or if it's a short-term bounce amid broader AI infrastructure demand.

Nvidia Partnership Clears Hurdles, Arizona Fab Gains Credibility
Intel's 3.29% surge is directly tied to the U.S. antitrust agencies' approval of Nvidia's $5B investment, which solidifies Intel's foundry strategy. The deal, announced in September, positions Intel to leverage Nvidia's AI expertise while securing critical funding. Simultaneously, Intel's Arizona fab, now in high-volume production of its 18A node, is gaining credibility as the company claims 'internal node' validation through its Panther Lake CPU. These developments alleviate concerns over Intel's manufacturing delays and foundry competitiveness, particularly against TSMC, which remains the industry's dominant foundry leader.

Semiconductor Sector Volatility: Intel Outpaces TSMC on Strategic Momentum
While TSMC (TSM) rose 1.89%, Intel's 3.29% gain underscores divergent investor sentiment. Intel's rally is fueled by tangible progress in its foundry business and high-profile partnerships, whereas TSMC's growth path, though clearer, faces near-term yield challenges in its 2nm node. Intel's 18A node, despite lower yields, is now in production, contrasting with TSMC's reliance on Taiwan's infrastructure. This momentum suggests investors are betting on Intel's U.S.-centric foundry strategy as a counterbalance to TSMC's dominance, even as TSMC's long-term AI infrastructure positioning remains robust.

Leveraged ETFs and Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Intel's Volatility
• 200-day average: 26.8671 (well below current price)
• RSI: 35.75 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -0.0196 (bearish signal)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price at 37.475 near the middle band (38.6155)
• Kline pattern: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish divergence

Intel's technicals suggest a short-term bounce amid oversold conditions, but the 200-day average and MACD signal lingering bearish pressure. The Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF (LINT, +6.82%) and GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW, +6.66%) offer leveraged exposure to capitalize on near-term volatility. Key support/resistance levels include the 35.85–36.05 30D support and 20.18–20.69 200D support, with the 52-week high at $44.02 as a critical resistance.

Top Options Contracts:
• INTC20251226C37.5 (Call, $37.5 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 34.49% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 49.29% (high)
- Delta: 0.5089 (neutral sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1419 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2085 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 604,795 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (39.35): $1.85 per contract. This call offers aggressive leverage for a moderate move, ideal for short-term bullish bets.

• INTC20251226C38.5 (Call, $38.5 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 37.40% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 87.12% (very high)
- Delta: 0.3262 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1074 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1738 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 74,441 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (39.35): $0.85 per contract. This contract balances high leverage with manageable delta, suitable for a controlled bullish play.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should target INTC20251226C37.5 for a 5% upside scenario, while INTC20251226C38.5 offers a safer, high-leverage entry. Both contracts benefit from Intel's current oversold RSI and the 37.5–38.5 price corridor. If the 38.5 strike is breached, consider rolling into the 40 strike for extended exposure.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
The backtest of Intel's (INTC) performance after an intraday surge of at least 3% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 47.19%, indicating a moderate short-term success, the 10-day win rate drops to 46.57% and the 30-day win rate falls further to 51.56%. This suggests that INTC tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of a significant price increase, but the longer-term returns are lackluster, with a maximum return of only 0.90% over 30 days.

Intel's Rally: A Short-Term Bounce or a Strategic Turnaround?
Intel's 3.29% surge is a mix of regulatory validation and manufacturing progress, but technicals suggest caution. The oversold RSI and divergent Kline pattern indicate a potential rebound, yet the 200-day average and MACD signal unresolved bearish pressure. Investors should monitor the 37.5–38.5 price corridor and key resistance at $44.02. TSMC's 1.89% gain highlights sector volatility, but Intel's leveraged ETFs (LINT, INTW) and selected options (INTC20251226C37.5) offer high-reward setups. Action: Buy INTC20251226C37.5 if the 37.5 strike holds; exit if the 36.47 intraday low breaks.