Intel aumenta un 7.5% con una inversión de $5000 millones en Nvidia y la participación del Tesoro - ¿Qué viene después?

Summary
• Intel (INTC) rockets 7.48% intraday to $39.66, fueled by a $5B Nvidia buy-in and a 10% U.S. Treasury stake.
• Institutional ownership at 62% amplifies sensitivity to large-scale institutional flows.
• Options frenzy: 2026-01-09 call options with strike prices $39–$41 see turnover surging 242%–274%.

Intel’s 7.5% rally on 2026-01-02 marks a pivotal inflection point, driven by a $5B Nvidia private placement and a Treasury-backed 'National Resilience' deal. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $44.02, the move reflects renewed institutional confidence and strategic bets on AI-driven manufacturing. The leveraged ETF GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) surged 14.6%, amplifying the sector’s bullish momentum.

Nvidia and Treasury Backing Ignites Intel's Rally
Intel’s explosive 7.48% gain stems from two landmark transactions: a $5B investment by Nvidia to co-develop AI chips and a 10% non-voting stake by the U.S. Treasury under the 2025 CHIPS Act. These moves signal a strategic alignment with U.S. policy goals and Nvidia’s AI ambitions, validating Intel’s role in the next-gen semiconductor ecosystem. The Treasury’s stake, part of a 'National Resilience' initiative, underscores government support for domestic chip manufacturing, while Nvidia’s investment provides critical capital for Intel’s production expansion and R&D. This dual endorsement has triggered a surge in institutional and retail buying, with options activity surging as traders bet on sustained momentum.

Semiconductor Sector Mixed as Intel Outperforms
While Intel’s 7.48% rally dwarfs the sector’s average performance, the broader semiconductor index remains cautious. Nvidia (NVDA), the sector’s leader, rose 1.28% intraday, reflecting its own AI-driven growth but lacking the institutional catalysts propelling Intel. The divergence highlights Intel’s unique positioning as a beneficiary of both private and public sector capital injections. However, the sector’s mixed performance—driven by divergent earnings trajectories and macroeconomic concerns—suggests Intel’s move may not be fully replicated by peers in the near term.

Leveraged ETFs and Call Options Signal Bullish Momentum
• RSI: 24.8 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.4036 (bearish) vs. Signal Line -0.2392 (rising)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $39.66 near upper band ($42.72)
• 200D MA: $27.45 (far below current price)

Intel’s technicals paint a picture of a short-term breakout. The RSI at 24.8 suggests oversold conditions, while the MACD’s rising signal line hints at a potential crossover. The stock’s proximity to the Bollinger upper band and its 200D MA gap indicate strong near-term momentum. The GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW), up 14.6%, offers leveraged exposure to this rally, though its 2x daily structure requires close monitoring.

Top Options Picks:
• INTC20260109C39
- Type: Call
- Strike: $39
- Expiry: 2026-01-09
- IV: 47.44% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 26.62% (high)
- Delta: 0.6144 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1862 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1373 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 1.14M (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.98 per contract
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a continuation of the rally.

• INTC20260109C40
- Type: Call
- Strike: $40
- Expiry: 2026-01-09
- IV: 47.66% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 40.48% (high)
- Delta: 0.4724 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1624 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1422 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 1.56M (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $1.98 per contract
- Why: Strong liquidity and leverage align with a bullish bias, with gamma amplifying gains if the move accelerates.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize INTC20260109C39 for its high gamma and leverage, while INTC20260109C40 offers a balanced risk-reward profile.

Backtest Intel Stock Performance
The backtest of Intel's performance after an intraday surge of at least 7% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day and 10-day win rates are above 40%, the 30-day win rate is slightly higher at 51.04%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 1.10%, which suggests that even though there were multiple days with a positive return, the overall gain was relatively modest.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside – Position for Next Move
Intel’s 7.5% surge is underpinned by structural tailwinds—Nvidia’s capital infusion and Treasury’s strategic stake—suggesting the rally has legs. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $44.02 and the Bollinger upper band at $42.72. The sector’s mixed performance, with Nvidia (NVDA) up 1.28%, highlights Intel’s unique catalysts. Investors should consider INTW for leveraged exposure or the INTC20260109C39 call option for a high-gamma play. If $40 holds, the 52-week high becomes a critical inflection point—break above it, and the next target is $46.50. Position now for a continuation of the AI-driven semiconductor renaissance.