intc stock surges 10% on apple partnership speculation analyst cites improved m-series chip odds

Intel shares surged over 10% on November 28, 2025, as speculation intensified about a potential partnership with Apple. The rally, the largest single-day gain for the chipmaker since early 2025, followed analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's assertion that Intel's chances of supplying Apple's M-series chips have improved significantly. Kuo cited industry surveys indicating Intel could begin shipping the lowest-end M processors by 2027. The move positioned Intel as the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 for the day, with shares nearly reaching their highest closing price in over a year.

Analysts Highlight Strategic Implications

Kuo's analysis emphasized that a deal with Apple would validate Intel's progress in revitalizing its manufacturing business. While the chipmaker has secured high-profile partnerships—most notably with Nvidia—concerns persist about its ability to secure long-term commitments for its foundry operations. A partnership with Apple, which previously sourced chips from Intel before shifting to TSMC, could alleviate investor skepticism about the company's sustainability. Kuo noted that while Intel lags behind TSMC in advanced-node production, Apple's potential adoption of its 18AP PDK 1.0/1.1 could signal a turning point.

Market Context and Competitive Landscape

Intel's stock has more than doubled in 2025, driven by its collaboration with Nvidia and broader market optimism around AI-driven demand. However, the company remains below historical highs, reflecting ongoing challenges in convincing customers to commit to its manufacturing services. The absence of foundry commitments in the nvidia partnership has fueled speculation about Intel's ability to scale its operations. Meanwhile, Apple's stock edged up less than 0.5% on the day, suggesting mixed sentiment about the rumored collaboration.

Broader Industry Trends

The semiconductor industry remains highly competitive, with companies like TSMC and Nvidia dominating advanced-node production. Intel's potential entry into Apple's supply chain underscores the sector's volatility, where even minor shifts in customer relationships can drive significant market movements. Analysts predict that Intel's success in securing Apple as a client could enhance its credibility as a long-term alternative to TSMC, particularly as global supply chains diversify.

Outlook and Risks

Despite the positive momentum, challenges remain. Intel must deliver on its PDK 1.0/1.1 roadmap by early 2026 to maintain Apple's confidence, while broader economic and regulatory factors could influence the partnership's trajectory. The company's ability to execute on its manufacturing upgrades and secure additional tier-one customers will be critical in determining whether the current rally translates into sustained growth.

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