Institutional Demand Fuels Bitcoin's Bullish Setup for Record Run

Bitcoin is currently in a strong position to potentially reach new all-time highs, with one analyst estimating a 70% probability of such a move within the next two weeks. This projection is backed by a combination of favorable technical indicators and robust institutional demand. According to Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher, the STH MVRV Z-Scores for both 155-day and 365-day holder cohorts are near zero, suggesting a balanced market setup. With Bitcoin trading just above the STH realized price, a consolidation period of one to two weeks could precede a breakout. Adler Jr. highlighted seasonal tailwinds, such as the "Uptober" trend, as additional factors supporting a bullish outcome.

Derivatives data further reinforce the constructive outlook. Bitcoin futures are trading at a consistent premium to spot, with the seven-day basis running above the 30-day, a structure typically linked with bullish trends. While minor overheating signals appeared ahead of the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event, the overall base case remains tilted toward strength. Analysts note that institutional demand is a firm anchor, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $2.8 billion in net inflows since September 9, 2025. This surge in activity has pushed Bitcoin's price higher and strengthened the technical indicators, signaling potential for a defining upward move.

The possibility of a short-term pullback remains before Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory. Internal liquidity at $114,000–$113,000 could trigger a brief consolidation phase, although improving macroeconomic conditions and accelerating ETF inflows suggest buyers may step in earlier. If Bitcoin confirms a daily close above $117,500, it would reduce the odds of a dip below $114,000. Adler Jr. emphasized that this development would align with the projection of new all-time highs within the next two weeks. The balance between structural liquidity gaps and bullish momentum may determine whether Bitcoin pauses or breaks directly toward $124,000.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to move through external liquidity zones rather than internal ones during bullish phases. A comparable move occurred in July 2025 when Bitcoin bypassed liquidity near $105,000 and surged to new highs after confirming a break of structure (BOS). A similar pattern appears to be forming now, with Bitcoin currently consolidating ahead of a potential breakout. Traders and investors are closely watching these developments, as the asset’s ability to skip over internal liquidity suggests strong demand and institutional participation. This dynamic could amplify price movements in the coming weeks and contribute to a sustained rally.

Market conditions are further supported by improving investor sentiment and favorable macroeconomic signals. The broader context includes a growing appetite for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, with ETF inflows indicating increased institutional confidence in the asset. As of September 15, 2025, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $259.9 million, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $261.8 million in inflows. This concentration of institutional demand underscores the growing integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial markets. If this trend continues, it could provide additional upward momentum and reinforce Bitcoin’s position as a legitimate asset class.

While the 70% probability of a new high is optimistic, analysts caution that external factors such as regulatory changes or macroeconomic shifts could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Nonetheless, the current alignment of technical indicators, institutional demand, and bullish sentiment creates a strong case for an upward move. Traders and investors are advised to remain cautious and monitor key price levels and liquidity zones closely. If Bitcoin confirms a breakout above $117,500, it could set the stage for a rapid move toward $124,000 and beyond, validating the expectations of analysts and reinforcing Bitcoin’s long-term upward trend.