Institutional Bitcoin Accumulation Surges 10% Above 200-Day Average

Over the past year, there has been a significant shift in Bitcoin ownership, with institutional players increasingly accumulating BTC. This trend has accelerated since the approval of spot ETFs in January 2024. Meanwhile, many retail investors, enticed by short-term profits or frightened by volatility, have been selling their BTC holdings. Interestingly, these retail investors are selling to the very institutions that previously doubted Bitcoin but now view it as a long-term store of value.

The on-chain data indicates that institutional demand for BTC has been rising since the start of the second quarter. In contrast, retail demand for the token has declined since the beginning of the year, although it briefly increased as the price reached a new all-time high. This suggests that institutions are driving the current BTC uptrend, with ETFs and corporate treasuries accumulating aggressively. The relative absence of retail investors could lead to pent-up fear of missing out (FOMO) if the price breaks its current range, resulting in sharp volatility as new buyers enter the market. However, it also poses risks of local tops when sentiment spikes.

Retail traders are expected to focus on volume surges and spot demand, as several factors point towards significant price movements in the near future. At the current price of $108K, Bitcoin is still considered undervalued according to the Mayer Multiple, an oscillator calculated as the ratio between price and the 200-day moving average. This indicator helps determine if Bitcoin is overbought, fairly priced, or undervalued. A higher multiple suggests that the BTC price is trading at a premium, but the current rates are lower, indicating that the token is trading at a discount.

Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple is at 1.1x, just 10% above its 200-day moving average and well below the 1.5x overheated zone. This signals that Bitcoin is not overheated, even as its price approaches its all-time high. This suggests that the token remains undervalued even at $108K. In recent days, the crypto space witnessed a historical event where dormant wallets, inactive for 14 years, suddenly became active. Some of the transferred Bitcoin was reportedly sold, creating bearish pressure on the token. However, the close consolidation of the BTC price suggests that the bulls are still in control. A similar event occurred where Bitcoin marked the third-largest single-day revival of old supply in history.

Data from Glassnode indicates that over 80,000 BTC, which had remained inactive for over five years, is now on the move. A similar event occurred in the middle of 2024 and in the first few days of 2022. With the market cap of Bitcoin above $2 trillion, the transfer of nearly $8.6 billion worth of BTC could be significant. However, the short-term impact on the price has been negligible, but a supply shock could be incoming. In a time when institutions are aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, retail investors must consider the long-term implications of selling. Bitcoin’s value lies not just in its price but in its design as a decentralized, finite asset. By holding, investors preserve their financial sovereignty and participate in a rare economic shift. Selling now may offer short-term gains, but holding could position investors for exponential value creation as global adoption and institutional interest continue to accelerate in the years ahead.