"INJ's 73% Plunge: Can Upgrade Spark Rebound?"

Injective's [INJ] price has plummeted by 73% from its all-time high (ATH), raising questions about a potential rebound. The altcoin has been in a sharp downtrend since March 2024, when it reached its peak of $53. Despite the decline, some analysts see a glimmer of hope in the form of a falling wedge pattern and an upcoming upgrade.

The INJ 3.0 upgrade, set to be implemented by Q1 2026, aims to reduce the token's circulating supply dramatically. This deflationary move could potentially drive up INJ's value if demand picks up, especially if broader market sentiment shifts bullish. However, the recent price trends suggest that buyers may need to take advantage of the short-term volatility during this downturn to trigger a patterned breakout.

Injective's price has been tracking the broader crypto market's movement, with a strong bearish edge indicated by the price dragging below its 20, 50, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The recent death cross (20/50-day EMA crossing below 200-day EMA) has further reinforced this downtrend. Despite hitting a 15-month low on February 3, INJ has seen a series of green candles but struggled to cross its 20-day EMA around the $15.6 resistance.

A convincing close above this level could spark a stronger recovery toward the next ceiling at the $18-$20 range. However, if broader market sentiment deteriorates, a near-term drop will likely test the $9.6-$10 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, indicating insufficient buying pressure. A decisive break above 50 would signal buyers to go long.

Derivative data hints at optimism, with INJ's derivatives volume jumping 18.63% to nearly $199 million, while Open Interest fell 7.5% to around $105 million. Rising volume with declining Open Interest often signals position closures, which could set the stage for new longs if bullish sentiment returns. The overall Long/Short Ratio on Binance was 2.11, reaffirming traders' short-term optimism.

The price behavior around its falling wedge boundary and the 2