Initia/Tether Market Overview

• Price action formed a bearish consolidation after reaching a 24-hour high of $0.1745, suggesting profit-taking.
• Volume surged during the late overnight hours, confirming a breakout attempt before reversing lower.
• RSI remains in overbought territory, signaling potential for near-term correction.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion, aligning with increased volatility.
• A bullish reversal pattern emerged near the 0.1720 level, hinting at possible support.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at $0.1707 on 2025-10-25 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1741 by 2025-10-26 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $0.1670–$0.1745. Total volume was 2,065,856.2 and turnover was $360,572.6. The pair experienced heightened volatility and volume during overnight trading, with a pullback forming midday.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period shows a strong overnight bullish bias, driven by a large bullish candle from 02:00–03:00 ET. This was followed by a consolidation phase marked by a series of doji and small-bodied candles, indicating indecision. Key resistance levels emerged at $0.1745 and $0.1728, while notable support is seen at $0.1710. A bullish engulfing pattern is visible at the 0.1720–0.1725 level, suggesting short-term buyers may re-enter.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bullish crossover early in the morning, reinforcing the breakout. However, by late morning, the price retested the 50-period MA and pulled back, indicating a potential shift in momentum. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at $0.1712 and the 200-period MA at $0.1698, with the price currently above both, suggesting a bullish bias over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative by midday, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum despite the high volume. RSI reached overbought levels of 68–70 during the overnight rally, suggesting a pullback could be imminent. However, the divergence between rising price and falling RSI suggests caution is warranted, as the trend may not be sustainable.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight hours, aligning with the breakout move toward $0.1745. Price briefly touched the upper band, reinforcing its role as a resistance level. The bands have since retracted slightly, with price currently trading near the middle band, indicating neutral to bullish potential depending on next-hour developments.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply from 02:00–05:00 ET, reaching a 24-hour high during the 03:30–04:00 ET period, confirming the breakout. Turnover also increased significantly during these hours, supporting the price action. However, volume dipped during the consolidation phase, suggesting lack of follow-through. A divergence between volume and price decline in the afternoon may indicate weak bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the overnight swing show the 61.8% level at $0.1732 and the 38.2% at $0.1716. Price has pulled back to the 38.2% level and appears to find support, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend if buyers re-enter. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement from the recent bearish move is at $0.1708, which is showing signs of holding as a key support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy that enters long on a bullish engulfing pattern near key support levels (e.g., 0.1720) with a stop loss just below the pattern’s low and a take-profit at the next Fibonacci level (0.1732) could be viable over the short term. This approach aligns with observed price action and volume confirmation during the overnight rally. Given the current RSI divergence and overbought levels, additional confirmation from the MACD or a breakout above $0.1745 would strengthen the signal.