Initia/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of 0.3809 to close at 0.3774, marking a 1.2% bearish bias.
• Volume spiked significantly during the 15:15–15:30 ET window, signaling increased distribution.
• RSI showed bearish momentum, dipping into oversold territory near 30, while MACD confirmed bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands reflected moderate volatility, with price near the lower band in the final 6 hours.
• Notable bullish rejection was observed near 0.3778, followed by bearish breakdown below this level.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.3746 on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3774 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 0.3809 and low of 0.3681. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 9,094,436.8 units, and notional turnover reached approximately $3.4 million. The pair showed a bearish bias in the final hours, with a key support level forming near 0.3774.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure over the past 24 hours displayed a bearish bias, particularly in the late New York session, where a strong rejection at 0.3778 gave way to a breakdown. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at the close of the 15-minute chart, confirming short-term bearish momentum. Notable support levels include 0.3763 (tested multiple times) and 0.3746, while 0.3778 appears as a key intermediate resistance. A doji near 0.3717 also signaled indecision among traders ahead of a final bearish push.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the price has consistently traded below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Bollinger Bands reflected moderate volatility expansion during the early morning hours in the Pacific time zone and contracted during the Asian session, suggesting a period of consolidation before the recent bearish move. Price closed near the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions and a possible rebound scenario, though the momentum suggests continuation of the bear trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum, while RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30 during the late Pacific session. This divergence between bearish price action and oversold RSI could indicate a short-term bounce, but bearish confirmation remains strong in the MACD histogram. Traders should monitor for a potential bearish continuation or a short-covering rally near 0.3774.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked sharply between 15:15 and 15:30 ET, as the price broke below 0.3778 and tested support at 0.3763. The volume during this period was 90,660.3 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $33,600, marking the highest 15-minute volume of the session. Price and volume action aligned during this breakdown, reinforcing the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume is not observed at the moment, suggesting a clean bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute swing (from 0.3809 to 0.3717), the price has found initial support near the 38.2% retracement level at 0.3774, which also aligns with a key moving average confluence. The 61.8% retracement at 0.3759 may offer the next critical support level. On the daily chart, a larger bearish structure from 0.3900 to 0.3681 places the 50% retracement at 0.3790—currently acting as overhead resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern near the 0.3778 level and the confirmation from MACD and RSI, a viable backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the close of the 15:15–15:30 ET candle, with a stop above 0.3790 and a target at 0.3745. This aligns with the recent volume spike and confluence of Fibonacci and moving average levels. Historical data would be needed to evaluate the win/loss ratio and average return on such setups, but the recent behavior supports a high-probability bearish trade into the next 24 hours.