Infosys Plunges 4.02% to $17.69 as Death Cross Signals Deepening Bearish Trend

Candlestick Theory
Infosys exhibits a pronounced bearish trend, closing at $17.69 with a 4.02% decline on June 20, 2025, following three consecutive down days totaling a 5.65% loss. The recent sessions formed a bearish continuation pattern, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Key resistance is established at $18.86 (June 17 high), while critical support rests at the $17.68-$17.69 swing low (June 20 close/low). A decisive break below $17.68 could intensify selling pressure toward $17.33, whereas recovery must reclaim $18.43 to invalidate the downtrend.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration signals a bearish structural shift. The 50-day SMA ($18.42) has crossed below the 100-day SMA ($18.88) and 200-day SMA ($19.35), confirming a "death cross" indicative of entrenched bearish momentum. Price action resides below all three SMAs, reflecting sustained selling pressure. The widening gap between the 50-day and longer-term averages reinforces medium-term weakness, suggesting any rebound would likely face resistance near $18.40-$18.50 (confluence of the 50/100-day SMAs).
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover below the signal line, with the histogram expanding negatively—signifying accelerating downward momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (14-period) has plunged into oversold territory: %K (15) and %D (25) crossed bearishly with the J-line at sub-10 levels. While this suggests exhaustion potential, neither indicator exhibits bullish divergence. The MACD’s position near 2025 lows and KDJ’s oversold readings imply vulnerability to a technical bounce but lack reversal confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the June 20 selloff, with price breaching the lower Bollinger Band ($17.85 based on 20-day SMA and 2 SD). The band expansion underscores aggressive downside momentum, though a reversion toward the 20-day SMA ($18.22) remains statistically likely. The prior contraction in late May preceded this directional move, validating the bands’ predictive utility. Price trading below the lower band for multiple sessions warns of persistent oversold conditions but not yet a reversal signal.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 25.2 million shares on June 20—2.3× the 30-day average—validating the breakdown with high conviction. This distribution climax contrasts with the muted volume during the preceding two down days, indicating capitulation. The volume profile further highlights resistance near $18.80-$19.00 (March-April 2025 peaks) and support near $17.30, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Sustained selling volume confirms bearish momentum dominance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI plummeted to 30.4, entering oversold territory but without divergence. Historically, Infosys’ RSI has lingered below 30 during extended declines (e.g., April 2025), diminishing its standalone predictive power. The current reading suggests weakened downward momentum, but recovery requires RSI stabilization above 35 and eventual break above 50 to signal trend reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the April 21, 2025, low ($16.39) and June 17, 2025, high ($18.86):
- 61.8% retracement: $17.33
- 50% retracement: $17.62
- 38.2% retracement: $17.91
Price closed at $17.69—between the 50% and 61.8% levels—a critical support zone. Confluence with the June 20 low ($17.68) and volume-backed breakdown raises odds of a test of $17.33. A hold above $17.62 could stabilize the trend, while failure may extend declines toward the 78.6% level ($16.98).
Confluence and Divergence Synthesis
Confluent bearish signals dominate:
- Death cross (MAs), volume-backed breakdown, and MACD/KST momentum agree on downside continuation.
- Bollinger Band breach and RSI at 30.4 align with oversold conditions but lack reversal triggers.
Notable bullish divergence is absent; oversold oscillators (KDJ/RSI) conflict with price action but require confirmation. The $17.33-$17.62 Fibonacci/SMA zone represents a probabilistic bounce region, though decisive closes below $17.60 may invalidate this support. Traders should monitor for bullish reversal candlesticks or volume contraction to signal exhaustion.