Infosys cae 3,34 %: ¿Qué es lo que genera la venta a contrapié frente al hiperestímulo de IA y a la volatilidad del sector?

Summary
• INFY trades at $18.52, down 3.34% intraday, with a 52-week high of $30.00 and low of $15.815
• Turnover hits 9.68M shares, 0.24% of float, amid muted volume relative to 90-day average
• Weiss Ratings assigns a 'C (Hold)' rating, citing weak total return despite strong fundamentals
• Technicals show RSI at 65.6, MACD above signal line, and Bollinger Bands squeezing toward $17.99

Infosys faces a sharp intraday selloff amid mixed sector dynamics and profit-taking pressure. The stock’s 3.34% decline to $18.52 reflects a broader struggle to sustain momentum in a crowded IT services landscape. With AI-driven peers like NVIDIA and Microsoft outperforming, INFY’s 16.58% profit margin and 3.72% revenue growth fail to justify its current valuation. Traders are now parsing technical levels and options activity to gauge near-term direction.

Profit-Taking and Sector Rotation Weigh on INFY
The selloff follows a 40% surge in INFY’s NYSE-listed ADRs to $26.62 in late December, triggered by sector-wide enthusiasm for IT services and AI-driven peers. However, the rapid move has invited profit-taking, particularly as the stock trades 36.7% below its 52-week high. Unlike peers like Accenture, INFY lacks a compelling growth narrative tied to generative AI or cloud infrastructure, leaving it vulnerable to sector rotation. Additionally, the stock’s 23.3x dynamic P/E ratio lags behind peers like Cognizant (CTSH) at 25.9x, highlighting valuation concerns. With volume below the 90-day average, the decline reflects a lack of conviction in INFY’s ability to sustain a re-rating.

IT Services Sector Mixed as Accenture Outperforms
The IT services sector remains fragmented, with Accenture (ACN) up 0.0388% intraday while INFY tumbles 3.34%. ACN’s 23.5x P/E and 29.03% ROE position it as a sector leader, contrasting INFY’s 23.3x P/E and 16.58% margin. Cognizant (CTSH) and Wipro (WIT) also outperform, reflecting INFY’s struggle to differentiate in a commoditized market. The selloff underscores investor preference for firms with clearer AI integration and higher-margin cloud offerings.

Options and ETFs to Navigate INFY’s Volatility
• MACD: 0.525 (above signal line 0.357), RSI: 65.6 (neutral), 200D MA: $17.51 (below price)
• Bollinger Bands: $19.48 (upper), $17.99 (middle), $16.50 (lower)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $17.72–$17.79, 200D $16.99–$17.08

INFY’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias with key support at $17.99 and resistance at $19.48. The stock’s 65.6 RSI and narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate a potential breakout or breakdown. For options, INFY20260116P18 (put) and INFY20260116C17 (call) offer strategic leverage.

INFY20260116P18 (Put):
• Code: INFY20260116P18
• Strike: $18.00
• Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 48.10% (moderate)
• Delta: -0.378 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0119 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1627 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 109,055 (high liquidity)
• Leverage: 28.10% (moderate)
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.76 per contract
• Why: High gamma and moderate delta make this put ideal for a 5% downside scenario, with strong liquidity for entry/exit.

INFY20260116C17 (Call):
• Code: INFY20260116C17
• Strike: $17.00
• Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 38.53% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.821 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0171 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1389 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 11,550 (high liquidity)
• Leverage: 10.60% (moderate)
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.00 (out of the money)
• Why: High delta and gamma position this call to benefit from a rebound above $17.99, though it’s at risk if the selloff persists.

Aggressive bulls may consider INFY20260116C17 into a bounce above $17.99, while shorts should target INFY20260116P18 if $17.99 breaks.

Backtest Infosys Stock Performance
The backtest of Infosys (INFY) after a -3% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present shows mixed short-term performance but a slight positive return over the longest 30-day period. The 3-Day win rate is 50.80%, the 10-Day win rate is 51.00%, and the 30-Day win rate is 50.20%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the average returns over these periods are negative, with a -0.07% return over 3 days, a -0.26% return over 10 days, and a -0.42% return over 30 days. The maximum return during the backtest was 0.04%, which occurred on the 30th day, suggesting that while there is some potential for recovery, the overall performance has been lackluster.

INFY at Crossroads: Watch $17.99 Support and Sector Rotation
INFY’s 3.34% intraday drop reflects a critical juncture for the stock, with $17.99 acting as a pivotal support level. The selloff is driven by profit-taking after a sharp rally and sector underperformance against AI-focused peers like Accenture. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA at $17.51 and Bollinger Band squeeze for directional clues. With the sector leader ACN up 0.0388%, INFY’s ability to differentiate its AI and cloud offerings will determine its near-term fate. Watch for $17.99 breakdown or a rebound above $19.48 to dictate next steps.