Inflación manteniéndose elevada: implicaciones para los mercados de bonos y accionarias en 2026

The global economic landscape in 2026 is poised to remain a delicate balancing act between stubborn inflation and tepid growth. According to Morgan Stanley's report, global GDP is projected to grow at 3.2% in 2026, with inflation cooling but remaining elevated in major economies like the U.S., where core inflation is expected to reach 3.5% by mid-2026. This "stagflation lite" environment-characterized by low growth and persistent price pressures-demands a recalibration of strategic asset allocation strategies, particularly for equities and bonds.

Central Bank Policies: A Gradual Easing Amid Uncertainty

Central banks are navigating a data-dependent path, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major institutions expected to cut interest rates cautiously. The Fed is projected to reduce its target rate to 3%-3.25% by mid-2026 in response to a cooling labor market. Similarly, the Bank of England is anticipated to lower rates to 2.75% by year-end, while the European Central Bank (ECB) may deliver two rate cuts if inflation undershoots expectations according to Think.ING.

However, these adjustments are tempered by the risk of inflation proving more "sticky" than anticipated, as noted by J.P. Morgan Global Research. For investors, this signals a need for flexibility in portfolio construction, as central bank actions will remain reactive rather than preemptive.

Equities: Navigating AI-Driven Growth and Structural Risks

Equities remain a cornerstone of 2026 portfolios, particularly in the U.S., where large-cap stocks and AI-related investments are expected to drive returns. AI-driven capital expenditures in the U.S. alone could reach USD 500 billion, bolstering productivity and supporting wage growth. However, this optimism is shadowed by risks, including overinvestment in AI infrastructure and potential stock market corrections according to Mercer. To mitigate these risks, institutional investors are advised to diversify equity exposures through a mix of passive, smart beta, and high-conviction active strategies as recommended by WTW. Additionally, real assets such as commodities-particularly copper, lithium, and gold-are gaining traction as inflation hedges according to PIMCO.

Bonds: A Pillar of Stability in a High-Yield Environment

Fixed income is emerging as a critical counterweight to equity volatility. With global interest rates remaining elevated, bonds offer attractive yields, particularly in high-quality corporate and emerging market debt as highlighted by PIMCO. PIMCO highlights that a diversified fixed income strategy can provide both income and downside protection in a high-inflation environment according to PIMCO. For example, emerging market debt is gaining appeal due to a weaker U.S. dollar and robust tech exports in Asia according to Mercer. Investors are encouraged to prioritize credit quality and liquidity while exploring opportunities in sectors insulated from inflationary pressures.

Strategic Asset Allocation: A Total Portfolio Approach

The shifting economic landscape underscores the importance of a total portfolio approach (TPA), as advocated by Willis Towers Watson. This strategy emphasizes holistic portfolio construction, integrating equities, bonds, and real assets to enhance resilience across market cycles as recommended by WTW. In 2026, a TPA would likely prioritize:
1. Equity Diversification: Balancing AI-driven growth sectors with defensive industries.
2. Bond Allocation: Leveraging high-yield and emerging market debt for income and diversification.
3. Real Assets: Allocating to commodities and inflation-linked securities to hedge against price pressures.

This approach not only mitigates concentration risk but also aligns with the evolving regulatory and macroeconomic environment according to WTW.

Conclusion: Preparing for a Prolonged Inflationary Regime

As 2026 unfolds, investors must brace for a prolonged period of elevated inflation and uneven global growth. Central banks will continue to tread carefully, while markets remain vulnerable to trade tensions and AI-driven overinvestment according to Morgan Stanley. A strategic asset allocation framework that prioritizes diversification, liquidity, and inflation protection will be essential for navigating this complex landscape. By adopting a total portfolio approach and staying attuned to central bank signals, investors can position themselves to weather uncertainty while capitalizing on emerging opportunities.