Can Inflation Data and ETF Momentum Spark a $3.20+ XRP Price Rebound?

The XRP price has faced significant headwinds in late 2025, trading at $2.40 as of October 24-a 35% decline from its July peak. However, a confluence of macroeconomic and on-chain catalysts is emerging, raising the question: Can U.S. inflation data and ETF-driven momentum propel XRP back toward $3.20 or higher? This analysis explores the interplay of these factors, drawing on recent market dynamics, regulatory developments, and network activity.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Inflation Data and Monetary Policy

The U.S. inflation rate remains a critical variable for XRP's short-to-mid-term trajectory. Traders are awaiting October 2025's consumer price index (CPI) data, with expectations for a 0.4% month-on-month increase and 3.1% year-on-year growth, according to a Financial Content report. Such figures would signal a moderation in inflationary pressures, potentially easing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and reducing the cost of capital for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Financial Content notes that a government shutdown delay in releasing CPI data has already heightened market volatility, with XRP benefiting from a 1.7% 24-hour rally amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions.

If inflation data aligns with expectations, the Fed's next policy meeting could hint at rate cuts in early 2026, which would likely boost risk-on sentiment. This scenario could create a favorable environment for XRP ETF inflows, which analysts project could reach $5–$10 billion if approved, according to a CryptoBasic analysis. For context, Bitcoin ETFs have already attracted $61.84 billion in cumulative inflows as of 2025, and if XRP ETFs capture half that volume, the token's price could surge toward $18.42, per a CoinEdition model.

On-Chain Catalysts: Network Activity and Institutional Adoption

While macroeconomic conditions set the stage, XRP's on-chain metrics reveal a mixed picture. Daily activations on the XRP Ledger surged by 60% on October 21, with over 5,000 new accounts created-a sign of renewed user interest, according to Coinotag data. However, transaction volumes have plummeted to 525,000 per day from 1.5 million in early October, and payment volumes have halved to 500 million XRP, per a Coinotag analysis. This divergence highlights structural challenges: while new users are joining the network, existing activity is waning.

The XRP burn rate-a deflationary metric reflecting tokens destroyed via transaction fees-has also collapsed to 741 XRP per day from over 4,500 in August, according to Coinotag data. This decline underscores reduced network utility and weak short-term demand. Yet, institutional adoption is gaining traction: Evernorth's planned $1 billion SPAC merger (ticker: XRPN) aims to institutionalize XRP treasury management, with trading volume spiking to $4.8 billion in the last 24 hours, per a Coinotag report. Such developments could bridge the gap between speculative demand and real-world utility, particularly in cross-border payments.

The ETF Bull Case: Structural Demand and Valuation Gaps

The most compelling catalyst for a $3.20+ rebound lies in XRP ETF approvals. If regulators greenlight these products, the token could inherit a portion of Bitcoin's ETF inflow tailwinds. For example, a 50% capture of Bitcoin's $61.84 billion inflows would inject $30.92 billion into XRP, potentially driving its price to $18.42, per the CryptoBasic analysis referenced above. Even a conservative 10% capture would still generate $6.18 billion in demand, pushing XRP above $5.

However, XRP faces a steep valuation gap compared to Ethereum. To surpass Ethereum's $472 billion market cap, XRP would need a 231% price increase, as noted in the CryptoBasic analysis. This underscores the need for sustained adoption beyond ETFs, such as broader DeFi integration or corporate treasury use cases.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for XRP

The path to $3.20 hinges on two critical factors:
1. Macroeconomic Clarity: A soft landing narrative (modest inflation + Fed easing) would reduce capital costs and boost risk assets.
2. Institutional Execution: Evernorth's SPAC merger and XRP Ledger upgrades (e.g., "Multi-Purpose Tokens") must translate into tangible utility.

While on-chain metrics remain mixed, the combination of ETF-driven demand and regulatory clarity could create a short-term rebound. Technical indicators like the TD Sequential already suggest a potential buy signal, according to a CryptoNews analysis, and REX-Osprey's XRP ETF has surpassed $100 million in assets under management, per a Coinotag report. If these trends align with favorable inflation data, XRP could test $3.20 by early 2026.