Indonesia Jan. trade surplus $0.96B; est. +$2.800B

Indonesia Jan. trade surplus $0.96B; est. +$2.800B

Indonesia’s January Trade Surplus Narrows to $2.76 Billion, Below Estimates

Indonesia’s trade surplus in January 2026 narrowed to $2.76 billion, falling short of the $2.8 billion estimated by market analysts. This marks a decline from the $2.52 billion surplus recorded in December 2025, reflecting mixed performance in exports and imports amid evolving global demand and policy shifts.

Exports in January grew 11.64% year-on-year to $26.35 billion in December 2025, the highest level in over three years, driven by rebounding demand for non-oil and gas goods. However, January’s export momentum appears to have softened, as evidenced by the narrower-than-expected trade surplus. Meanwhile, imports rose 10.81% year-on-year in December 2025, fueled by increased oil and gas imports and a rebound in non-energy goods. Analysts suggest similar import trends may have persisted into January, contributing to the revised surplus.

A key development influencing Indonesia’s trade dynamics is the recently finalized U.S.-Indonesia reciprocal trade agreement. The pact, inked in February 2026, reduces U.S. tariffs on Indonesian exports such as coffee, natural rubber, and spices to 19% from 32%, while granting tariff-free access for nearly 1,700 items, including palm oil. In exchange, Indonesia has committed to lowering barriers for U.S. goods and adopting American standards for vehicles and medical products. This agreement is expected to bolster long-term export competitiveness but may take time to offset near-term headwinds.

For the full year of 2025, Indonesia maintained a robust trade surplus of $41.05 billion, supported by 6.15% year-on-year export growth. However, January’s data underscores the challenges of sustaining this momentum amid fluctuating global demand and geopolitical uncertainties. Policymakers will likely monitor the impact of the U.S. trade deal and domestic economic indicators, such as manufacturing PMI and retail sales, to navigate near-term volatility.

(https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesian-trade-surplus-widened-jan-276-billion-reuters-poll-shows-2026-02-27/): Reuters poll (February 27, 2026)
(https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/balance-of-trade): Trading Economics (Indonesia Balance of Trade data, updated December 2025)