Indonesia Jan. imports rise 18.21% y/y; est.+15.00%

Indonesia Jan. imports rise 18.21% y/y; est.+15.00%

Indonesia’s January Trade Surplus Expands Amid Strong Export Growth

Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to an estimated $2.76 billion in January 2026, up from $2.52 billion in December 2025, according to a Reuters poll of 12 economists. This follows a consistent streak of monthly trade surpluses since mid-2020, driven by robust commodity exports and recovering global demand.

Exports in January 2026 rose 11.07% year-on-year, slightly decelerating from 11.64% growth in December. Key export sectors, including coal, palm oil, and nickel, benefited from sustained international demand amid ongoing industrial activity in Asia. Meanwhile, imports increased by 13.23% y/y, outpacing December’s 10.81% growth. The rise in imports reflects stronger domestic economic activity and higher global commodity prices, particularly for machinery, chemicals, and consumer goods.

The widening trade surplus highlights Indonesia’s resilience in balancing export momentum with import growth. However, the nation’s inflationary pressures remain a concern. The Reuters poll forecasts February 2026 headline inflation at 4.31% y/y, up from 3.55% in January, as food and energy prices persistently rise. Annual core inflation, which excludes volatile items, is projected at 2.48% for February, marginally above January’s 2.45%.

The Bank of Indonesia (BI) has maintained a cautious stance, targeting an inflation rate of 1.5%–3.5% for 2026 and 2027. While the central bank has avoided rate hikes since late 2025, it has emphasized monitoring inflation risks from global energy markets and domestic demand.

Official trade and inflation data are scheduled for release on March 2, 2026. These figures will provide further clarity on Indonesia’s economic trajectory amid global uncertainties and domestic policy adjustments.

(https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesian-trade-surplus-widened-jan-276-billion-reuters-poll-shows-2026-02-27/): Reuters poll, February 2026.