La volatilidad del mercado en la India: ¿Una oportunidad estratégica en medio de las tensiones comerciales con Estados Unidos y los declives en los diferentes sectores económicos?

India's stock markets have entered a period of heightened volatility in late 2025, driven by escalating U.S. trade tensions and global economic uncertainty. While sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, and leather face acute headwinds from steep U.S. tariffs, others-such as IT and pharmaceuticals-demonstrate resilience. This divergence creates a unique investment landscape, where undervalued opportunities in export-dependent sectors coexist with defensive plays in domestically driven industries. By dissecting valuation metrics, fundamental strengths, and strategic pivots, investors can identify high-conviction opportunities amid the chaos.

The Tariff Shock: Export-Dependent Sectors Under Pressure

The U.S. imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian goods-particularly in textiles, gems and jewellery, and leather-has triggered a sharp re-evaluation of sectoral valuations. Textile exports, for instance, saw a modest 1.23% year-on-year growth in January–September 2025, driven by non-U.S. markets like the UAE and Egypt, but domestic producers remain vulnerable to order cancellations and margin compression. Similarly, the gems and jewellery sector, which relies heavily on U.S. demand, recorded a 1.24% export increase to USD 22.73 billion, yet faces idle production capacities and reduced competitiveness.

Despite these challenges, the market has begun to price in structural shifts. For example, Mayur Uniquoters Ltd, a synthetic leather exporter, reported a 20% revenue surge in Q4 2025, with profit metrics rising by 34–36%, even as it delays expansion plans in Mexico due to tariff uncertainties. Meanwhile, Bhartiya International Ltd, a leather apparel player, posted INR 241.99 crore in consolidated revenue for Q4 FY25, with a stable EBITDA of INR 19.64 crore, suggesting resilience amid trade tensions.

Undervalued Stocks: Metrics and Fundamentals

Valuation metrics reveal compelling opportunities in sectors facing short-term pain but with long-term growth potential. In the gems and jewellery sector, Golkunda Diamonds (P/E: 10.8, P/B: 2.1, RoE: 18.1%) and Vaibhav Global (P/E: 20.7, P/B: 2.7, RoE: 11.4%) stand out for their low valuations relative to earnings and asset values. These companies are capitalizing on India's ambition to reach USD 100 billion in jewellery exports by 2027, driven by diversification into markets like South Korea and Saudi Arabia.

The textile sector offers similar prospects. Vardhman Textiles Ltd (P/E: 13.71, RoE: 9.22%) and Welspun Living Ltd (P/E: 19.37, RoE: 13.41%) trade at attractive multiples, supported by government incentives and a pivot toward non-U.S. markets. Notably, India's textile exports to the UAE and Netherlands grew by 20–30% in Q4 2025, mitigating some of the U.S. tariff impact.

In the leather sector, Mayur Uniquoters Ltd (P/E: 14.28, P/B: 2.23) and Bhartiya International Ltd (P/E: 61.53, P/B: 2.15) present mixed valuations. While Mayur Uniquoters' conservative P/E aligns with its global synthetic leather expertise, Bhartiya International's higher P/E reflects its strong international footprint and stable EBITDA margins. Analysts note that U.S. tariffs may have limited impact on these firms, as S&P Global estimates the affected exports represent just 1.2% of India's GDP.

Strategic Resilience: Diversification and Domestic Demand

India's export sector is adapting to the new reality. Textile and jewellery exporters are increasingly targeting markets like China, Spain, and the UAE, with shipments to these regions growing by 15–25% in late 2025. This diversification, coupled with robust domestic demand-driven by a growing middle class and government-led manufacturing initiatives- creates a buffer against U.S. trade shocks.

For investors, the key lies in balancing risk and reward. Defensive plays in IT and pharma, which remain tariff-exempt, offer stability, while selectively investing in undervalued exporters with strong balance sheets and diversified markets can yield outsized returns. As Axis Capital notes, the real threat to India's export sector lies not in U.S. tariffs but in China's competitive exports and rising global capital costs. This underscores the importance of fundamentals over short-term geopolitical noise.

Conclusion: A Bullish Outlook Amid Volatility

India's markets remain structurally bullish, despite periodic turbulence. The country's projected 6–7% GDP growth in 2027, supported by monetary easing and structural reforms, provides a solid macroeconomic backdrop. For investors, the current volatility is a buying opportunity in sectors poised for recovery. Textiles, gems and jewellery, and leather-while under pressure-offer compelling valuations and long-term growth potential, particularly for companies with diversified markets and strong operational leverage.

As the U.S. trade war rages on, India's ability to pivot and innovate will determine the winners and losers. Those who act now, armed with rigorous analysis and a focus on fundamentals, may find themselves well-positioned for the next phase of India's economic ascent.