La alza de los mercados de la India: una oportunidad estratégica entre los vientos de cola mundiales y la resiliencia interna

India's equity markets have long been a barometer of global capital flows and domestic policy efficacy. As 2025 draws to a close, a compelling narrative is emerging: despite a year of net outflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs), the final weeks of the year have signaled a potential inflection point. With global macroeconomic conditions poised to shift in 2026 and India's domestic sectors demonstrating resilience, now is the time for investors to overweight exposure to this high-conviction market.

The FII Inflow Reversal: A Harbinger of 2026 Optimism

Foreign investors have been a mixed bag in 2025. Year-to-date, FIIs have sold Indian equities worth ₹1,57,860 crore, with December alone witnessing outflows of ₹14,185 crore. However, the final weeks of the year revealed a critical shift. On 26 November 2025, FIIs turned net buyers with inflows of ₹4,778 crore, and by late December, net outflows had narrowed to ₹252 crore, driven by strategic buying ahead of the Santa Claus rally.

This moderation suggests a recalibration of sentiment, with foreign investors beginning to price in India's structural strengths.

The October 2025 inflow of ₹14,610 crore further underscores that global capital is not entirely disengaging. Instead, FIIs appear to be adopting a selective accumulation strategy, targeting sectors with earnings resilience. This trend, if sustained into 2026, could catalyze a broader inflow reversal, particularly if global rate cuts and rupee stability align with India's domestic growth trajectory.

Macroeconomic Stability: A Pillar of Investor Confidence

India's macroeconomic framework has proven robust in 2025, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining a delicate balance between inflation control and growth support. While specific data on rupee stability for 2025 remains elusive, the RBI's proactive interventions in forex markets have historically curbed excessive volatility. A stable rupee is critical for FIIs, as it reduces currency risk and enhances returns on equity investments.

Globally, central banks are expected to pivot toward easing cycles in 2026. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) have hinted at rate cuts to counter slowing growth, a shift that typically redirects capital to high-growth emerging markets like India. Lower global interest rates would reduce the cost of capital for Indian equities, making them more attractive relative to U.S. Treasuries and European bonds.

Sectoral Outperformance: IT, Metals, and Infrastructure Lead the Charge

India's earnings recovery in 2025 has been anchored by three sectors: information technology (IT), metals, and infrastructure. The IT sector, a longstanding global export engine, has benefited from sustained demand for digital transformation and AI-driven solutions. While specific 2025 earnings figures are unavailable, the sector's resilience amid global economic headwinds suggests strong fundamentals.

The metals sector has also shown promise, driven by domestic infrastructure spending and global commodity demand. India's push for manufacturing under the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has spurred investments in steel and aluminum, creating a tailwind for firms in this space. Similarly, infrastructure-bolstered by government capex and private participation-remains a cornerstone of India's growth story, with projects like the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) unlocking long-term value.

Strategic Case for Overweighting India in 2026

The confluence of FII inflow moderation, macroeconomic stability, and sectoral strength positions India as a strategic opportunity for 2026. Investors should consider overweighting equities in IT, metals, and infrastructure, which are poised to benefit from both domestic and global tailwinds. Additionally, the anticipation of global rate cuts will likely amplify foreign capital inflows, further fueling market momentum.

While risks such as geopolitical tensions and domestic policy execution challenges persist, the current valuation levels and earnings visibility in key sectors offer a compelling risk-reward profile. For investors seeking to capitalize on a potential inflection in India's market rally, the time to act is now.