El crecimiento “adecuado” de la India: Evaluando la solidez estructural y la brecha en los sentimientos del público.

India's economy is currently riding a rare and powerful macroeconomic wave. The setup is textbook Goldilocks: robust growth paired with cooling inflation. For the fiscal year ending March 2026, official projections point to a 7.4% expansion, a clear acceleration from the 6.5% growth recorded the prior year. This momentum has been sustained, with the economy expanding at a 6-quarter high of 8.2% in the second quarter of FY2025-26. The growth is being driven by resilient domestic demand, with private consumption expected to grow around 7%.

This expansion is occurring against a backdrop of significantly subdued price pressures. Inflation has cooled dramatically, with the CPI inflation falling to 0.71% in November 2025. This sharp decline-from a peak of 4.26% in January-has given the central bank room to act. The Reserve Bank of India recently cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, a move that underscores the policy space created by this disinflation.

The labor market is also tightening, adding to the favorable picture. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in November 2025, marking the lowest level since April of that year. This combination of high growth, low inflation, and falling unemployment creates a structural moment of stability and confidence that is rare for a major emerging market.

Yet, this is where the central question emerges. The setup is strong, but its sustainability is not guaranteed. The growth projections, while impressive, are still subject to external risks, notably the 50% tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. that remain in place. More critically, the benefits of this economic expansion must now be assessed for their real impact on households. The macro numbers look good, but the policy challenge is to ensure that this growth translates into broad-based prosperity and that the low-inflation environment is durable enough to support it. The Goldilocks moment is here, but its warmth needs to be felt across the economy.

Household Reality Check: Consumption, Confidence, and Policy Impact

The macroeconomic strength is beginning to translate into tangible gains for Indian households, though the picture is one of selective uplift rather than universal prosperity. The most direct signal is in consumer sentiment, which has rebounded strongly. The Reserve Bank of India's Current Situation Index (CSI) climbed to 98.4 in November 2025, up from 96.9 the prior month. This marks a significant recovery from the depths of the pandemic, though it remains below the long-term projection of 97.00 points for 2026. The index's rise is driven by improved perceptions of both price levels and the general economic situation, suggesting households are feeling the benefits of disinflation and steady growth.

This confidence is being reinforced by a robust labor market. Corporate India is planning substantial salary increases, with annual hikes expected in the range of 6% to 15% for most roles. For critical and emerging skill sets-such as AI, cybersecurity, and senior leadership positions-increases could touch as high as 40%. This wage momentum provides a crucial channel for growth to flow to the household sector, supporting consumption and savings.

The most compelling evidence of this transmission comes from rural India. A recent survey found that nearly 80% of rural households reported higher consumption over the past year. This surge is directly linked to policy action, as GST rate rationalisation has lowered prices for major agricultural equipment, with tractors seeing price cuts of Rs 40,000 to Rs 1 lakh. The result is a historic shift: consumption now accounts for 67.3% of monthly household income, the highest share since the survey began. Rural households are also expressing strong optimism, with nearly 76% expecting income growth next year.

Yet, a gap remains between the macro conditions and the lived experience of all households. The rural data is a bright spot, but the broader agricultural sector shows a mixed picture, with nominal growth in farm output collapsing. Furthermore, the CSI's projection of a slight decline back toward 97.00 in 2026 hints that the current euphoria may not be fully sustainable. The bottom line is that the structural growth and low-inflation environment are creating real opportunities, particularly for skilled workers and rural consumers. But the policy challenge now is to ensure this momentum broadens, reaching those in the informal sector and those whose incomes are not keeping pace with the cost of living. The Goldilocks moment is warming households, but the policy focus must be on making it last.

The External Test: Trade Headwinds and Domestic Resilience

The primary external risk to India's Goldilocks trajectory is now a concrete and persistent tariff wall. Since August 2025, the United States has imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports, a move that directly threatens a key growth engine. Given that the U.S. market accounts for about 18% of India's total exports, the potential drag is significant. The International Monetary Fund has already factored this in, projecting India's growth to moderate to 6.2% in fiscal 2027 under a prolonged delay in a trade deal.

Yet, the economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of this shock. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs offers a calibrated view, stating that consumption and public investment are expected to "largely offset" the adverse impact of these tariffs. This projection of 7.2% growth for FY26, while slightly below the government's 7.4% estimate, hinges on this domestic offset. The key metric of resilience is the currency. India's real effective exchange rate improved to 100.9 in 2025, indicating the rupee has strengthened in real terms. This makes Indian goods cheaper abroad, providing a natural buffer against the tariff's punitive effect.

The government's targeted policy response is a clear attempt to bolster this domestic offset. By reducing GST on key goods like tractors, authorities have directly lowered prices by Rs 40,000 to Rs 1 lakh. This move is already showing results, with nearly 80% of rural households reporting higher consumption over the past year. The policy is working to stimulate demand and support rural incomes, sectors critical for broad-based growth.

The bottom line is that domestic policies appear sufficient to counter the immediate external shock, at least for now. The combination of a resilient currency, targeted tax cuts, and strong domestic demand is creating a buffer. However, this is a defensive posture. The tariffs remain a structural overhang, and their persistence could eventually erode the very domestic momentum they are meant to offset. The policy focus must now be on ensuring that this resilience is not just a temporary shield, but a foundation for sustainable, export-diversified growth.

Investment Implications and Forward Scenarios

The investment thesis for India now hinges on a clear set of watchpoints. The structural growth and low-inflation setup is intact, but its durability is being tested by a specific external catalyst and domestic policy signals. The primary external event to monitor is the outcome of ongoing U.S.-India trade negotiations and any adjustment to the 50% tariffs on Indian exports. These tariffs remain a persistent headwind, and their resolution-or lack thereof-will be the single largest determinant of whether the economy can maintain its current momentum or faces a more pronounced slowdown.

This creates a divergence in growth forecasts that investors must reconcile. The official projection from the Indian government is for 7.4% growth in the fiscal year ending March 2026. However, the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs offers a more cautious view, forecasting 6.6% growth for the following fiscal year (2026-27), assuming the tariff delay persists. This gap underscores the sensitivity of the outlook to trade policy. The market's forward view will be shaped by which forecast proves more accurate, with the UNDESA's estimate serving as a key downside risk scenario.

On the domestic front, two signals are paramount. First, the trajectory of the Reserve Bank of India's policy rate. The central bank has already cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, a move enabled by cooling inflation. The next steps will depend on whether disinflation is durable or if it stalls. A dovish stance supports growth, while premature tightening could dampen the domestic recovery.

Second, and perhaps more critical for the sustainability of consumption, is the persistence of wage growth. Corporate India is planning substantial salary increases, with annual hikes expected in the range of 6% to 15% for most roles, and up to 40% for critical and emerging skill sets. This wage momentum is a vital channel for translating economic expansion into broad-based prosperity. Its continuation will be a key indicator that the benefits of growth are spreading beyond select sectors.

The bottom line for investors is that the thesis's validity rests on these three metrics: the resolution of the U.S. tariff issue, the RBI's policy path, and the resilience of wage growth. Watch these, and the path for Indian assets-whether equities, bonds, or the currency-will become clearer.