Impinj Plummets 13.5%: What's Behind the Sudden Sell-Off?

Summary
• Impinj (PI) gaps down 13.47% intraday to $172.67, its lowest since January 2024
• Preliminary Q4 revenue near $93M guidance range, adjusted EBITDA above midpoint
• No GAAP earnings disclosed, CEO/CFO to speak at Needham Growth Conference today
• Stock trades below 50-day ($167.72) and 200-day ($147.03) averages

Impinj’s 13.5% intraday plunge has rattled investors despite upbeat Q4 revenue guidance. The stock’s sharp decline—its worst since the 2020 market crash—has sparked speculation about earnings opacity and sector sentiment. With the company set to release full Q4 results in February, traders are dissecting technicals and options data for clues.

Strong Guidance Ignored as Investors Seek Clarity on Earnings
Impinj’s 13.5% drop defies its preliminary Q4 revenue update, which positioned the RAIN RFID provider near the high end of its $90M–$93M guidance range. However, the absence of GAAP earnings figures—despite adjusted EBITDA exceeding $15.4M–$16.9M midpoint—has left analysts and traders in the dark. The company’s decision to withhold GAAP results, coupled with muted commentary during its conference appearance, has triggered a flight to safety. Short sellers capitalized on the uncertainty, with options data showing heavy put buying ahead of February expiration.

Semiconductor Sector Mixed as Intel Rises, Impinj Falls
While the broader semiconductor sector remains volatile, Intel (INTC) bucked the trend with a 1.98% intraday gain, reinforcing its position as a sector leader. Impinj’s 13.5% drop contrasts sharply with Intel’s resilience, highlighting divergent investor sentiment. The S&P 500 Semiconductor Index (XSD) edged lower, but Impinj’s decline outpaced peers, underscoring concerns about its high forward P/E ratio (300x) and earnings visibility.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with Puts
• 200-day MA: $147.03 (below current price), 50-day MA: $167.72 (near support)
• RSI: 63.8 (neutral), MACD: 9.80 (bullish divergence), Bollinger Bands: $148.76–$211.99
• Key support: $170.86–$172.14 (30D range), resistance: $192.99 (intraday high)

Impinj’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with the 200-day MA ($147.03) acting as a critical floor. The stock’s 63.8 RSI reading indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but the MACD’s 9.80 level hints at lingering bullish momentum. Traders should monitor the $170.86 support zone and $192.99 intraday high for directional clues.

Top Options Contracts:
• PI20260220P180 (Put, $180 strike, Feb 20 expiry):
- IV: 50.23% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: -0.54 (sensitive to price drops)
- Theta: -0.0275 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.014 (moderate sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 8,480 (liquid)
- Leverage: 12.16% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% downside ($164.04): $15.96 per contract
- Why it stands out: Balances volatility and liquidity, ideal for a 5% downside scenario.

• PI20260220P190 (Put, $190 strike, Feb 20 expiry):
- IV: 60.08% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.63 (high sensitivity to price drops)
- Theta: -0.0207 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0112 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 13,270 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 7.56% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% downside ($164.04): $25.96 per contract
- Why it stands out: High IV and turnover make it a top pick for aggressive short-term bearish bets.

Action: Aggressive bears may consider PI20260220P190 into a breakdown below $170.86. For a balanced approach, PI20260220P180 offers a safer entry with defined risk.

Backtest Impinj Stock Performance
The backtest of the performance of the SPY ETF after a -13% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present reveals a strategy that managed to achieve a 37.95% return, slightly underperforming the benchmark, which delivered a 43.58% return. Despite this, the strategy maintained a reasonable Sharpe ratio of 0.18, indicating a good risk-adjusted return. The maximum drawdown was recorded at 66.00%, reflecting the strategy's ability to withstand significant market downturns.

Act Now: Short-Term Volatility Presents Strategic Entry Points
Impinj’s 13.5% intraday drop has created a high-volatility environment, with technicals and options data pointing to a near-term bearish bias. The stock’s 63.8 RSI and MACD divergence suggest a potential pullback to the 200-day MA ($147.03) remains a risk, but the $170.86 support zone could stabilize the move. Traders should watch for a breakdown below $170.86 or a rebound above $192.99 (intraday high) to gauge direction. Meanwhile, sector leader Intel (INTC) rising 1.98% offers a contrasting narrative—use this divergence to assess broader semiconductor sentiment. For those seeking leverage, the PI20260220P190 put contract provides a high-IV, high-liquidity vehicle to capitalize on a 5% downside scenario.