Is Impinj (PI) Undervalued Amidst Surging Institutional Bullishness and RFID Adoption?

The RFID (Radio-Frequency Identification) sector is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by the convergence of IoT (Internet of Things) adoption, supply chain modernization, and the urgent need for real-time asset tracking. At the center of this transformation is Impinj (NASDAQ:PI), a company that has quietly positioned itself as a critical infrastructure provider for the digital economy. With surging institutional ownership, a 10.22% CAGR in the RFID market, and a recent earnings beat, the question looms: Is Impinj undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next phase of growth?

Financial Performance: A Foundation for Growth

Impinj's third-quarter 2025 results underscore its operational resilience. The company reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.58, exceeding the $0.51 consensus estimate, and revenue of $96.1 million, a 1% year-over-year increase. Sequentially, the Systems segment saw a 30% revenue jump, fueled by large deployments in North America and Europe. Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $19.1 million, with gross margins improving due to favorable product mix and licensing contributions according to financial reports.

While Q4 guidance of $90–93 million revenue is slightly below Q3's performance, this dip is offset by strategic investments in high-growth areas. Impinj is targeting food and e-commerce markets, where it anticipates modest volumes in 2026 but envisions these as multibillion-unit annual opportunities as adoption scales according to market analysis. The company is also doubling down on software and SaaS initiatives, appointing a new SVP of SaaS and Cloud Services to capture recurring revenue streams as part of its growth strategy.

Institutional Bullishness: A Vote of Confidence

Institutional ownership data reveals a compelling narrative. Ameriprise Financial Inc. increased its stake by 3.1% in Q3 2025, now holding 2.206% of Impinj's shares according to market data. State Street Corp also boosted its holdings by 1.4%, while DLD Asset Management LP maintains a massive 41.251% ownership stake, signaling long-term conviction according to ownership records. Conversely, Invesco Ltd. saw a 40.2% decline in its holdings, but this appears to be a minor blip in an otherwise bullish trend.

Barclays' recent upgrade of Impinj to "Overweight" with a $211 price target (up from $200) further validates institutional optimism. The firm cited "growing momentum in grocery deployments" and a "potentially huge opportunity" in the RFID-driven retail sector according to market analysis.

Market Dynamics: RFID's Explosive Growth Trajectory

The RFID market is not just growing-it's accelerating. The United Kingdom RFID market, a bellwether for global trends, is projected to expand from $1.38 billion in 2024 to $3.3 billion by 2033, a 10.22% CAGR according to market research. This growth is driven by industries like retail (inventory optimization), healthcare (asset tracking), and logistics (supply chain visibility). RFID's integration with IoT and smart infrastructure is particularly transformative, enabling real-time tracking in smart cities, transportation systems and factory automation.

Impinj is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this. Its RAIN RFID technology-a global standard for IoT connectivity-powers real-time tracking of billions of items, from groceries to pharmaceuticals. Competitors like Alien Technology and Nedap are active in the space, but Impinj's focus on endpoint ICs and reader sales, combined with its software ecosystem, creates a moat that is difficult to replicate according to industry reports.

Valuation: A Case for Undervaluation

While Impinj's financials and market position are robust, its valuation metrics remain compelling. The company's P/E ratio is not explicitly stated in the data, but its adjusted EBITDA of $19.1 million and $96.1 million in revenue suggest a low multiple relative to its growth trajectory. For context, the RFID sector's average P/E ratio is typically in the 20–30x range, according to market analysis. If Impinj's EBITDA margins continue to expand and its SaaS initiatives gain traction, a re-rating to 25x EBITDA would imply a $200+ price target, aligning with Barclays' revised estimate.

Moreover, the institutional ownership trends and Barclays' upgrade indicate that the market is beginning to price in Impinj's long-term potential. However, the company's current market cap of $2.5 billion (as of October 2025) still lags behind its peers in the IoT space, which trade at $5–10 billion valuations. This discrepancy suggests that Impinj is undervalued relative to its growth prospects, particularly as it scales into food, e-commerce, and SaaS.

Risks and Considerations

No investment is without risk. Impinj's reliance on commodity-like RFID chips exposes it to margin pressures if competitors undercut pricing. Additionally, the slow adoption of RFID in new markets (e.g., food) could delay revenue synergies. However, the company's diversified product portfolio, strong institutional backing, and strategic SaaS pivot mitigate these risks.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Growth Play

Impinj (PI) is a rare blend of tangible financial performance, institutional conviction, and strategic positioning in a high-growth sector. Its Q3 results, coupled with a 10.22% CAGR in the RFID market and a 30% sequential revenue surge in its Systems segment, validate its role as a critical enabler of the IoT revolution. While the lack of explicit P/E data for peers introduces some uncertainty, the broader market dynamics and institutional ownership trends strongly suggest that Impinj is undervalued.

For investors seeking a high-conviction play on the IoT and RFID boom, Impinj offers a compelling thesis: a company with proven execution, expanding margins, and a clear path to multibillion-dollar markets. As the digital economy demands real-time visibility, Impinj's RAIN RFID technology is not just a niche solution-it's the backbone of the next industrial revolution.